From Macquarie:
Following the Samarco tragedy in Brazil, which has removed 30mtpa of iron ore (pellet) supply from the market, Vale released a statement saying that production at its own Fabrica Nova / Timbopeba operations in the Southeastern mining complex nearby may be negatively impacted, by 3mt in 2015 and 9mt in 2016. We understand that this is due to a conveyor between the mine and processing plant, which runs across the Samarco operations, having been seriously damaged/destroyed in the accident. As a result, the iron ore market will see 39mt less supply in 2016 than was previously expected, which is two-thirds of what we modelled to be necessary to bring supply back in line with projected demand.
