Investor mortgage demand slumps

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By Leith van Onselen

Today’s housing finance data for September, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), posted a small rise in owner-occupied finance commitments, with investor finance commitments falling sharply.

According to the ABS, total owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% over the month to be up by 6.8% over the year (see below charts).

ScreenHunter_10232 Nov. 10 11.34
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ScreenHunter_10233 Nov. 10 11.35

By comparison, the value of investor finance commitments fell by 8.5% in September and were down by 2.1% over the year (see next chart).

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The annual share of total loans going to investors (excluding refinancings) also fell to 50.9% in September from 51.4% last month:

ScreenHunter_10239 Nov. 10 11.46

Meanwhile, first home buyer (FHB) owner-occupied demand remained tepid in September at just 15.4% of total owner-occupied finance commitments. It did, however, rise by 6.2% in September, although it was down by 4.8% over the year (see below charts).

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ScreenHunter_10236 Nov. 10 11.41 ScreenHunter_10235 Nov. 10 11.41

Meanwhile, the average loan size jumped 2.3% in September and was up 15.4% over the year, and is in a strong uptrend on a 3-month moving average basis:

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Finally, the below chart shows the pick-up in owner-occupied housing demand, which seems to be offsetting the falling investor demand:

ScreenHunter_10240 Nov. 10 11.51

The great Australian investor bubble appears to be cooked.

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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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