Big iron and gas sort men from boys

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Big iron can’t catch a bid today despite Friday’s rally in iron ore, largely owing to more poor China data over the weekend. BHP is down -0.8%, RIO is down 0.4% but FMG is up 2% as Bell Potter upgraded it to a buy. Charlie Aitkin never learns!

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There has been a raft of upgrades for FMG in recent weeks and lot’s of positive analysis from investment banks returning from a recent site tour that indicated more cost cuts. There is no doubt that the business is being managed well but what’s passing the “analysts” by is that that is immaterial. What matters is the deteriorating outlook for iron ore and the market share battle that will kill FMG whatever it does. But, hey, that’s a problem for another day! Dalian has opened unchanged at 362.

Turning to big gas, the picture is mixed with WPL flat, OSH down -0.6%, STO up 3.6%, ORG down 1.5% and LNG down 5% as markets give up hope on the junior aspirant:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.