From Citi’s chief economist and general legend, Willem Buiter, today:
If we adjust for the probable mis-measurement of China’s GDP growth in official data, “true” global growth is probably around 2¼% this year and also is likely to be below 2½% in 2016 (i.e. well below the 3% long-run norm). EM growth on this measurement-adjusted basis probably is about 2½% YoY this year, the lowest since the late 1990s. Even after these downgrades, risks to our global forecasts probably lie to the downside.
Looks about right. Also via a Citi conference comes Dr John Hewson:
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
