What’s an idiot in charge do to confidence?

Quite a lot apparently, from Forexlive:

consumer-confidence-sept-22

Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence 114.5, up 8.7% w/w (prior 105.3)

For the week ended September 20 … the week we got a new PM

That’s the biggest rise in a week on record

ANZ comments:

  • Bounce in confidence was broad-based
  • In particular, views on economic conditions over the next year jumped 25.8% (2nd largest one-week gain since the series began in 2008)
  • Confidence in the economy over the next five years also gained a robust 13.4%, but remains well below its long-run average

Chief Economist Hogan:

  • “The sharp jump in consumer confidence last week is a clear vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull
  • For the bounce to be sustained, however, the new Prime Minister and his colleagues will need to deliver a medium-term reform strategy in the context of a clear economic story for the country”

Comments

    • Unfortunately it turns out that even the woman he risked his prime ministership for turned her back on him. The Daily Telegraph is reporting that Bronwyn Bishop told colleagues she would vote against him during the leadership spill.

      She confided in colleagues that she abandoned Mr Abbott because she thought he had acted “appallingly” by making her resign over Choppergate scandal.

      This is my favorite bit. Chopper Bishop thinks he should have stuck by her. I dont know between the two of them who is the most arrogant delusional moron. The sheer nerve of bishop. At no point does she even accept that she was in excess. Typify the mentality of her and her political cohorts.

  1. All Govt members are running around saying Innovation and technology, along with productivity increases are going to save the economy. But none can layout just what innovation and technology it is and none have a plan for lifting productivity, NOR do any of them have any track record in developing innovation, technology or lifting productivity. The monkeys surely have the keys to the Zoo.
    This is bullshit and hype and will unwind very quickly, about Xmas is my call
    And dont ask me, cause I dont know! WW

      • Computer! after reading the comments yesterday about the level of voltage spikes in the 230v supply, and how it is managed,( I thought the one I encountered was one off) I bought a new UPS, if this computer blows up I’m sunk, but what was highlighted was the domestic power supply is now a managed maze of technology, just waiting to a lightning strike to knock the whole lot out. There has to be an opportunity for some wizz to make a UPS for the whole frigging house. Sort of like a big capacity switch mode power supply.

    • I was hoping before Christmas and they’re probably hoping after. What I do fully fear is that Hockey’s FIRB reforms are going to be quietly binned to unleash the confidence monster.

      • The fact that there is STILL no Housing Minister should tell you what you need to know about the new PM’s priorities.

  2. “medium-term reform strategy in the context of a clear economic story for the country”

    Umm if the government even tried to tell a narrative of structural adjustment they would be thrown out of office.

    Turnball should have called a snap election, said that Australia needs to change or face a decade of recessions. Most people feel it in their bones it is just the MSM is not talking about it. He would go to the election with the mandate to do whatever it takes to make Australia productive. With Bill Shorten at the helm he would have won and could enact the politically impossible policies that taxed wealth and not income.

    Overall a wasted opportunity.

    • The only way to call a snap election is through a double dissolution. The lower threshold in the Senate makes it even easier for minor parties to get elected. It’s a risky strategy.
      The right time to call a double dissolution will be when the poll show 54/46. Not 51/49.

      • That can all be part of the narrative, Malcolm isn’t in it for the political career but to make Australia better and this is the only way. Opening up himself and being willing to sacrifice his political career would do wonders with garnering support from the public.

        If he loses, he can at least say he gave the country a chance to fix itself. In 5 years time he would be seen as a hero if he fails. A much better legacy than the same old… Isn’t what Malcolm is all about, the legacy he leaves behind? He is rich enough that the next 3-4 generations of his family never have to work if they choose.

      • @Labrynth. How will he secure his wealth for the next generations? A vexing question methinks. He can steer the country to increase or retain his personal fortune but certainly has alot to lose.

    • Turnball should have called a snap election, said that Australia needs to change or face a decade of recessions.

      he would also need to explain what he and his mates he wants for his cabinet did to create or prevent decade long recession. hint: he was minister in Howard government that created the mess and minister in Abbott government that let mess inflate even further. He is also big beneficiary of our housing complex

      he is just part of the system that is a root cause of our problems so clearly he cannot be part of any solution

    • mine-otour in a china shop

      Good point – how many people have examined the Business sector Innovation survey that the ABS run? It is a great survey which also tries to measure inputs to innovation, business outputs and impacts – the results on an international basis are dire, particularly from a small and medium sized enterprise perspective. Less spin, more analysis by out experts and some action is needed, rather than mentioning the 2 words you correctly mention.

      • That ABS survey is v good but no one uses it or understands that it has data for over 20 years, because it tells a failing story. What they all use is the plethora of mindless ‘growth’ stories that come from vendors and business groups which all give a rosy brilliant ‘awesome’ picture.

  3. Malcolm has to ease away the failed Abbott policies and persuade the party room that moderation and a semblance of fairness is better than defeat. Then he can have an election and win it.

    • Seems like this is what he is trying to do with the new cabinet and hopefully the dinosaurs of the party will let him do so without too much trouble.

    • No matter what MT does, he knows this hollowed out bubble economy is heading over the mining boom cliff and there’s no amount of confidence that will stop it, so expect an early election. once the dinosaurs have been slaughtered. Meantime, he’s going to put on a smiley, happy face and use all the positive, empty buzzwords at a politician’s disposal.

    • There can’t be election until next year for two reasons. One is if an election was called before the end of February the boundaries in NSW will not be set and Susan Ley (Minister of Health) would be without a seat due to the mini-redistribution.
      The second is any election before July next year has to be a House only or a double dissolution election. House only is not going to free up the senate. A double dissolution on the current rules will just result in additonal crossbenchers (possibly crazier than the current bunch) and the would have to be fought on a rejected Abbott era policy (like Higher Ed reform).

    • You know, I don’t think he has to ease away anything. My feeling is he’ll act quickly and decisively on a lot of the policies of the failed loon-pond experiment. Case in point: http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/has-malcolm-turnbull-changed-his-mind-on-the-nbn-20150921-gjrgcd.html

      Cabinet is now stacked with moderates. He has significant political capital and a popularity surplus. Meanwhile, the loon pond and its cheerleaders (Bolt, Jones et al) have lost all influence now that their chief loon has been de-throned.

    • OK, no early election. Plenty of policies to act on to try and get the public on board, but by the middle of next year the weakness of the economy will be impossible to deny.

      • True, StJ. The difference now is that there is, at least, some hope that we will have eloquent ideas around the upcoming structural adjustment without three-word slogans and onion eating.

    • mine-otour in a china shop

      Must be a wonderful world with all these leadership changes? Then lobbyists have to rehire people to start the lobby cycle all over again? In the meantime the rest of us though have to keep our shoulders to the wheel and care about our fellow people – not such a wonderful world but a more rewarding one.

    • I think lingering bad feeling to Mr. Dopey within the electorate has already helped Turnball establish and thrive- who wouldn’t with such a comparison? In fact, the Liberals might commission you to create a series of before and after portraits. Opportunity.

    • “I’ll be really glad when you lot move on from your Abbott obsession.”

      I’m happy to move on from Abbott when the RWNJs do so. I think that’s going to take a while though…

    • Ha ha ha! That’s our 3D! Reading this thread, basically none of the comments are about Abbott. You’re projecting again, 3D. Ha ha ha!

  4. http://www.watoday.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/has-malcolm-turnbull-changed-his-mind-on-the-nbn-20150921-gjrgcd.html
    “While Budde didn’t say whether Turnbull would pursue an NBN with more fibre, the call has got some industry insiders wondering whether he has changed his mind on it now that Abbott is no longer in charge.

    My view is that Turnbull won’t likely order a drastic NBN change – but he sure as hell won’t order new Communications Minister Mitch Fifield to “demolish” it like Abbott ordered him to do to Labor’s NBN.”

    this may make me more confident.

    • I suspect that he will say:

      “Of course, commercial and industrial areas will need fttp for upload speeds, and naturally where existing copper is in a bad way it should be replaced by fttp, and new areas obviously fttp, and areas in between those served by fttp should also be fttp for standardisation purposes, and of course these areas mentioned should be done as priorities, by which time other areas of copper will be so bad they will need to be replaced..fttp of course. But apart from that, the Coalition’s policy is completely different from that wickedly expensive porn downloading non business case tested ALP NBN. Completely different, “

      • NBN were talking about replacing crappy copper with new copper rather than fibre even last week.

        And so much for the “economic management is in our DNA” Liberals…spending $11 billion dollars on an unknown copper network.

        http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/broken-phone-lines-taking-longer-to-fix-will-soon-be-nbn-cos-problem-20150912-gjl9kj.html

        NBN chief executive Bill Morrow also revealed Telstra did not release any information about the copper network until after the $11 billion deal was renegotiated.

      • NBN fttp got to my premises a few months ago. (Marginal electorate).

        Mainly, I was told, because the Cu was stuffed. Maybe that’s changed. I hope not, since repacing Cu with Cu is daft unless it’s short runs here and there.

      • “NBN were talking about replacing crappy copper with new copper rather than fibre even last wee”

        I would never have imagined that could happen but one of my work colleagues insists thats whats happening in Cannigton in Perth now where he lives. He says half the street have had new copper put in preparation for the nodes. And only half the street. Which means half the street is shiny new copper, the other half is crappy old copper. So the chances are you will have a speed differential in the same street. It is just insane to be doing this.

    • Great pick-up, MB. I would not be surprised if PM Hope and Optimism scurried to an early election in fear of an oncoming recession. The expression is more cultured but the duplicity the same.