Turnbull delivers moderate poll boost

From Fairfax:

A nationwide ReachTel Seven-West poll of just under 3300 voters taken on Tuesday night showed voters were flooding back to the Coalition under its new management, with Mr Turnbull catapulting ahead of Labor’s Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister with a lead of 61.9 per cent to 38.1 per cent.

The Coalition’s support has also rebounded for the first time in months with a primary vote of 43.3 per cent to Labor’s 35.9, making for a two-party-preferred share of the vote of 50-50 based on preference flows at the 2013 election.

That is better for the government than any of the past seven monthly polls in which the best it could do was 48-52, and it was generally much lower.

I’d call that pretty disappointing for a first poll. Even Kevin Rudd’s return briefly gave him the lead. It’s only one poll and the man has barely opened his mouth yet so let’s see how we go.

Comments

  1. The interesting figure is how even ALP voters prefer MT as PM over Shorten. Nevertheless, until we see new policies from the government, the poll is not going to improve by itself.

    • Agreed. I’m not sure a poll in the first couple of days is useful at all really (though I thought the TPP bounce would be bigger). I won’t take much notice of polling for a month or so. Time for Cabinet to be appointed and start talking about future policies.

  2. It’s the political equivalent of a dead cat bounce.

    Malcolm Turnbull has openly stated that he is keeping all of Tony Abbott’s more stupid policies such as the 4 week waiting period for the unemployed young, direct action, a plebiscite for same-sex marriage, no cut backs on superannuation concessions, no changes to negative gearing, etc.

    Hr did this to buy the support of the dominant hard right of the Liberal Party, so he can’t walk away from these statements.

    With a deteriorating economy, rising unemployment and a bitterly divided party (expect leaks and dirt files to be soon emerging), I’m sceptical that his position is going to improve long term.

    What’s more incredible is that Macrobusiness and the mainstream press are literally ignoring the words coming out of his mouth and believe that he will accomplish exactly the opposite despite the the issues above.

    • Mark my words, Malcolm Turnbull could possibly lead the Liberal party to one of its biggest electoral defeats in modern history in a years time… I think he’s desperately needs to win Labour and Green voters for those Liberal voters he loses.

      If he goes for gay marriage, he literally could lose 50% of Liberal voters. And thats just a start.

      • Research, you are exactly correct.
        Abbott dodged a bullet by being replaced. He just has to lurk in the background till it all implodes.
        Why Shorten even wants to get involved is beyond me. As Flawse would say, the answers lie a long way back in time. Now the path out of this mess is really going to burn a lot of people.

      • “I think he’s desperately needs to win Labour and Green voters for those Liberal voters he loses.”

        But where are these lost Liberal voters going to go under our compulsory preferential voting system? Are they just not going to vote? Informal vote? Preference Labor ahead of Liberal? I’m confused…

      • Whats with this trope of “the answers lie a long way back in time” shtick. What like 14,000 years 5000 years, 2000 years, 50 years, and what is the question, whom provided the lie, corrupted the truth….

        Skippy…. so Sunday schoolish…

      • FiftiesFibroShack

        @AB didn’t see your post.

        Yes, those are the right questions. Unless they don’t vote their preferences would surely flow back to the LNP.

      • Personally I’m hoping we get the crazy Bernardi/Bolt party but there’s no way that even their Turnbull/Bishop hatred would lead them to preference Labor ahead of Liberal. Or can we dare to dream?

      • “Whats with this trope of “the answers lie a long way back in time” shtick.”

        Around here it usually refers to either the beginning of Australia’s permanent CADs (~50yrs ago) or the moment when our masters decided that they didn’t matter and we should all just sit back and relax (late 80s, early 90s?).

      • “If he goes for gay marriage, he literally could lose 50% of Liberal voters.”

        What utter nonsense. Who are they going to vote for? The Greens? Even if they park their vote with Family First or some other loopy conservative Christian group, they’ll always preference the LNP ahead of Labor.

        Besides RT, while SSM might be unpopular amongst your fellow young Earth creationists, out in the real world everyone has moved on. The electorate is way ahead of the politicians on this issue.

      • 1. Bank reserves are assets. The bank will not be willy nilly loaning out its cash assets and diluting its reserve ratio.

        2. The bank is not going to get a risk free rate better than the central bank. It will have to purchase riskier assets from another financial entity, who will then park the cash in their own reserve account.

        3. Ignorant people have been wetting their pants over inflation since GFC day 0. ZIRP has been around for years, either they don’t fear inflation or the money does a merry go round and ends up back in reserves.

        4. If the bank buys foreign currency, it sells domestic currency to the seller, who promptly parks it back in reserves again.

        MMT AND EXTERNAL CONSTRAINTS

        February 24, 2014
        By L. Randall Wray

        “I have no doubt that China would eventually be in a position where floating (her currency) would not only be desired, but it would be necessary.China will probably float long before it reaches such a position. China will become too wealthy, too developed, to avoid floating. She will stop net accumulating foreign currency reserves, and will probably begin to run current account deficits. She will gradually relax capital controls. She might never go full-bore Western-style “free market” but she will find it to her advantage to float in order to preserve domestic policy space.

        If she did not, she could look forward to a quasi-colonial status, subordinate to the reserve currency issuer. China will not do that.”

        Skippy… The problem is that we have all these hard money types running around impacting policy, when the really is no such thing as hard money. If money is allowed to float freely, all of the stuff gets worked out (and into the economy) in little tiny nibbles that do no one any harm. The hard money types, in an effort to get every little thousandth of a penny advantage, end up compressing all of these normal nibbles into great big piles of economic horseshit, and then still want everyone else to pay for their greed.

      • But where are these lost Liberal voters going to go under our compulsory preferential voting system? Are they just not going to vote? Informal vote? Preference Labor ahead of Liberal? I’m confused…

        Expect to see the social conservative loonies over in Family First get a big boost at the next election at the cost of the Liberals.

        But, yes, a lot of those will subsequently fall through to the Liberals on preferences, they’re certainly never going to end up with Labor or Greens.

      • WW to avoid me hopping into a hot tub time machine, what answers are you and Flawse talking about.

        Somethin akin to The Split?

      • Swampy: The problem we have is repaying debt, both at a personal level and a national level.
        (description at Sunday school level for Skippy)

        In the past your low level of debt could be repaid by just working at your job, and at a national level by keeping the TOT in the positive. ( Once, we had exports the rest of the planet found valuable, starting with wool)
        The troll under the bridge at the personal level is the advance of technology and its application by companies to reduce employment and thus the loss of a job prohibits the ability to repay a now massive debt, and the ogre at the national level is the lack of demand for our exports. (which as we have allowed the competitive technology relating to our resource industry to be transferred to other nations so they can compete with us. Today you can copy the compete business plan, all the agreements and mining procedure for a mine on to a cd, and its in the hands of your competitors in 24 hours.
        And a minor problem just starting to raise its head for all is the future increases in the cost of capital.

        Most of the inducement to increase personal debt came from TV with reality shows promoting real-estate and the news media talking up the national prospects, so their advertising revenues would benefit. Like a firestorm after a short while it fed on its own heat.(a runaway)

        Had we have been able to maintain employment (Turnstile, please note) the debt dragon may be able to be tamed, but even today Westpac is telling us they need to introduce more automated banking so banks don’t need to be so large.
        Manufacturing is dead in the water ad many will tell you they need a 60c exchange rate to make profits, but at an 60c exchange rate the punters will have no cash left to spend.
        An oil filter for your SUV will cost 40bucks. (for example) and items (fashion) for women will go to the stratosphere (keep your wallet away from your wife)

        Everyone tells us the future is in service industries to export to the emerging middle class of eg China. And that is mentioned in the ChFTA, but I’m lost to find any earners in that category, and should find one it would be quickly copied. For me this service industry waffle is just a means to keep the velocity of money from stagnating.
        So for the general public, as the grain fed pig points out, I don’t know the answers.
        There will always be specialist roles, but that won’t create employment, just oasis’s of money.

        When did the madness really start, my call is when big screen TV’s made sitting in front of the TV and being indoctrinated with someone else’s message enjoyable. Say 12 years ago.

        How are we going to get out of it, we need politicians with the insight of Keynes and the ability of Donald Trump to use the media to get the message across. The essence of a leader is to communicate and lead making decisions of not too bid a step s to lose the followers.
        But in the background is the shadow of advancing technology dissolving jobs. It’s a race.

      • WW,

        How many times must you and your compadre’s be reminded of the events created by the Chicago school, that proceed even your dummy spat. Maybe if you looked at the last 50ish years in a sociopolitical light and not some Sunday school Econned monopole optic, things might make more sense. People tend to forget our currant RE dramas started back then, not 10 years ago, as well as post industrialism, FIRE sector, et al, but don’t people get done in the head about RE… sheeez..

        Skippy…. that aside it does change the payment nor monetary systems capacity to deal with social problems, except for hard money sorts…

      • Most of the inducement to increase personal debt came from TV with reality shows promoting real-estate and the news media talking up the national prospects, so their advertising revenues would benefit. Like a firestorm after a short while it fed on its own heat.(a runaway)

        No it didn’t. It came from people’s desire to keep increasing living standards at the same (post-WW2) rate while real incomes remained stagnant (or dropped) because all the productivity benefits were going to the top few percent from the mid ’70s or so.

        When did the madness really start, my call is when big screen TV’s made sitting in front of the TV and being indoctrinated with someone else’s message enjoyable. Say 12 years ago.

        Shit, no. It’s a lot longer than that.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Century_of_the_Self

        http://www.abc.net.au/tv/programs/men-who-made-us-spend/

        How are we going to get out of it, we need politicians with the insight of Keynes and the ability of Donald Trump to use the media to get the message across.

        Trump is only getting a message across to people who agree with him.

    • What I think will happen (for what little that’s worth) is he will convince cabinet they need to move on marriage equality (conscience vote – possibly using this morning’s Senate report re: the plebiscite to do so, “save the taxpayers $120 Million!”) and the climate so they do become official policy.

      After stacking the cabinet with half-smart bright eyed things of course.

      • That may work in the old Liberal Party of John Howard or John Hewson, but not today.

        The party is stacked with Hard Right Wingers.

      • I tend to agree Marshie.

        It’s all in the language – Turnbull spoke of being a consultative PM. If he consults with his new cabinet and, as a cabinet, they decide that they should move on SSM and Climate Change, then so be it!

        Sure, it’ll put the loons offside, but the opportunity is there him if he wants to take them on.

    • It is not surprising that he is announcing nothing new.

      1. He needs to settle the frightened and twitchy reactionaries in his party who fear he will line the water pipes with lead.

      2. He cannot change any policies until he starts communicating what his govt will be about. Establishing the narrative must precede the policy so that when policy change is announced people expect it. Things that are expected and appear over due are more likely to be accepted.

      The unknown is what will be the narrative but you can be fairly sure that it will not start with the MB wishlist but then the ALP are pretty dismal on that front as well.

      • Agree. My guess is he’ll wait till the election before tilting the party towards a more progressive agenda so he can claim a mandate for it. There are too many in the loony fringes who would otherwise work themselves up into a righteous froth about supposedly breaking faith with the Australian people, while conveniently forgetting that this was done at the outset of the Abbott govt and the only people with whom faith has not been broken is the small and shrinking RWNJ demographic.

      • I am finding the whole approach to our new PM more educative and informative of us, the public (or at least blog commenters) than of our politicians.
        Turnbull states that he will be consultative about any changes. The inference then is that the status quo must be maintained until there has been party room debate and cabinet consideration of any policy changes. However, what I see is Turnbull being attacked for maintaining the status quo and for selling out his personal beliefs.
        Had Turnbull got up and immediately said he was junking direct action (however misguided it might be) and bringing in a gay marriage bill etc. then others would have attacked him for being autocratic and dictatorial and not consulting with colleagues.
        All I see is a public demanding the impossible. Ideological purity, instant change yet consultation and communication too.
        We can certainly go for leadership change number 6 or 7 or 8 but I think we are destined to disappointment in perpetuity.
        I would at least give the man a chance and see how it pans out before writing him off on day 2.

      • Exactly Andrew, a point I also made yesterday. It does too tie in with the extraordinary expectations, no, demands, so many made of the Abbott Government to fix years of policy overnight – with a hostile Senate, a petulant media!

        Like a bunch of student activists: Whaddawewant? CHANGE. Whatkindachangedowewant? OUR KINDA CHANGE. Whendowewantit? NOW.

  3. “It’s only one poll and the man has barely opened his mouth yet so let’s see how we go.”

    Outrageous generosity HnH. It’s been two-and-a-half days! Sack the man! The Beast must be fed!!

    • Abbott was correct in his speech when he blamed the poll-driven media culture for his demise(Not entirely true of course…) but this is getting seriously ridiculous. 2 days in office and already being judged…

    • @PaulF Agreed. Like alcohol and the teenager’s brain, social media and the 24-hour news cycle has hit Australia hard and we simply aren’t mature enough to cope. We face the very real prospect of Turnbull becoming the next victim within 12 months. No party will govern with any mandate until we grow up.

    • No party will govern with any mandate until we grow up.

      No party should “govern with a mandate”. That’s just an electoral dictatorship.

      We’ll be grown up when we can handle proper democracy, which inherently requires compromises, not mandates.

  4. I think MT is at best Abbott lite. By the sunds of it he is unable / unwilling to make changes to policy areas people thought he’d be different / better on.

    So keeping DA instead of some form of carbon price will lose him support

    Going on with a $160M plebiscite on SS marriage – also lose him votes, especially in his own electorate.

    Lets see if he can go against the Abbott captain’s picks and make some changes to NG and super taxes. Easy budget deficit reduction funds right there.

    • I think MT is at best Abbott lite. By the sunds of it he is unable / unwilling to make changes to policy areas people thought he’d be different / better on.

      So many comments like this. Why does everyone think that Australian government decisions comes down to the leader of the party and no one else? Has everyone forgotten how the Westminster cabinet system works?

      His personal policy preferences have to go through cabinet before they can become party policies. Cabinet itself has to compose members of the Coalition factions, including Nationals, Moderates, Neoliberals, Right-wingers, etc. or he risks another spill and potentially splitting the Liberal party. Remember that the Coalition is a much, much broader church than the Liberals or the Greens.

      If Turnbull is truly going to avoid running the same authoritarian style governments that Abbott and Rudd enjoyed, where everything was run out of the PM’s office, then his policy turning circle is going to be huge. If his goal is to return true liberalism to the Liberal party then he has a massive task ahead of him.

      • So many comments like this. Why does everyone think that Australian government decisions comes down to the leader of the party and no one else? Has everyone forgotten how the Westminster cabinet system works?

        Our politicians certainly seem to have. Well, except the Greens.

        Just look at how many of them the other night were blathering on about how Abbot was “chosen by the people” and Turnbull was “not elected”.

        The two major parties are well down the path of political personality cults. One only needs to listen to their language to realise that – “strong leaders”, “mandates”, etc.

  5. He did say that this would be a Cabinet lead Govt with no “Captains picks” so the first thing he has to do is convince his Cabinet – which hasnt even been announced yet let alone had its first meeting so um, yeah he may need a little more time before changing all the core govt policies.

  6. I suggest that he will call an election before the next budget. If he wins, then we will see what he is really made of. All of this current carry on is just in preparation for him to call an election as soon as he thinks he can win. The main interest should be in what policies he will take to the election. Then and only then will we see his true colours.

    • I agree, but if he wants the Liberal party to be a genuine liberal party (not just economic liberals) he will need very strong public support in order to stave off the conservatives in his party. The thing is, how does he get the support from the public he needs to change policy direction when his suck the Coalition’s old unpopular policies? Terror Australis quote sums the situation up nicely.

      Turnbull is going to have to be a pretty savvy operator to snooker the conservative.

      • He has already indicated his capacity to snooker the conservatives.

        Tone-Loc, goneski.
        Who next?

        WE NEED AN MB DEATH POOL POLL on who is next

        It will read like a who’s who list of right wing nutter loonies like the dreadful Erica Betz. His dictation and voice is enough to send me into a defenestrative apoplexy.

  7. Somebody summed it up perfectly this week.

    “The public love Malcolm because they think he is different to the rest of the LNP.
    BUT the party let him have the job only because he promised he won’t be.”

    Something has to break.

  8. If anyone needs a laugh, I recommend reading any of The Australian’s online political articles.
    Forget what the Murdoch hacks write and go straight to the comments section.

    It’s almost wall-to-wall Malcolm Hate Mail from hard core conservative voters.
    A few comments about “resigning my Liberal Party membership”, “refuse to help his campaign” etc.
    These are the foot soldiers that Turnbull has to win back over the next 12 months.
    He has his work cut out.

      • Malcolm The Memoirs

        The key theme will be how Malcolm joined the Libs as the Longest of Long Games ever played.

        All for the goal of destroying the Noalition by Causing The Split (MkII, a Split Redux) or seeing them cast into oblivion.

        #popcornplease

        I could be wrong and he could, somehow, cause them to transmogrify into small l liberalism

        (#guffaw?)

        Listening to Ruddock this morning on AM tells you all you need to know about his ilk

        THERE BE COMMUNISTS AT TEH DOOR STILL, ARRRRRRRGH (I don’t know why he sounds like a pirate but it’s quite humorous)

  9. Given the manner of his ascension to power, for MT to come out swinging the next day with a raft of unilaterally chosen new policies would be lunacy.

    Even though he may not like the policy shit sandwich he’s been handed, he’s going to have to stick with it until he can do what he said he’d do…introduce change through consultation.

    Having said that, if he doesn’t change things…if he just becomes “Abbott with better elocution” as someone quipped, then he’ll be stuffed. But I’m sure MT knows that Abbott wasn’t on the nose with the electorate just because he’s a dick, although that was a big part of it. The policies were and are a problem for the LNP, and if he’s given some time I believe that he will do the best he can to introduce some necessary changes. It will be fascinating to see how this all pans out, particularly how MT deals with fundamentalist ratbags like Bernardi who are nominally on his own side but obviously despise him.

    We live, and will be living, in interesting times.

  10. FWIW if the ReachTel numbers were replicated at a general election (with uniform swing) ALP would have 71 seats, which means with 5 or more crossbenchers (probably more) – – – HUNG PARLIAMENT!