Weekend links 8-9 August, 2015

James Ensor, The Frightful Musicians, 1891

China

• Beijing may question the yuan peg as the Fed prepares for liftoff – SoberLook
• Can the Renminbi Take on the World? – Project-Syndicate
• How China Is Winning Southeast Asia – Project-Syndicate
• China’s Malfunctioning Financial Regulation – Project-Syndicate
• China brokerages repackage margin loans into exchange-traded securities – SCMP
• China iron ore trading platform considers deposits to cut default risk – SCMP
• As China Reduces Local Spending, Cities Woo Private Investors – NY Times
• China hits the brakes on financial disruption – Reuters
• China’s Labor Force Undergoes Growing Pains – Caixin
• Auditors Probe Sinopec, Savvy Broker in Angola – Caixin
• Value of Bad Loans Rises for 14th Straight Quarter – Caixin
• China’s Cities ‘Not Telling Public about Debt Levels’ – Caixin
• China’s top bank regulator says bad loans surge – China Daily
• China balance-sheet trick fuels debt as letters of credit surge – Mineweb
• China’s Stock Crash Is Spurring a Shakeout in Shadow Banks – Bloomberg

Asia

• Malaysia mess puts Goldman Sachs in the hot seat – Reuters
• The Trans-Pacific Divisions – Economonitor
• With Iran’s Help, India Eludes China in Race for Gas Riches – Bloomberg
• Negotiators hope to wrap up Trans-Pacific Partnership talks this month – LA Times
• TPP would be a second-best outcome for Asia – Nikkei Asian Review
• BOJ stands pat, upbeat on economy despite expected Q2 contraction – Nikkei Asian Review

Europe

• Indebted Portugal is still the problem child of the eurozone – Telegraph
• Greece’s banks are dying, and fast – Washington Post
• Can Putin Save Russia’s Struggling Companies? – Bloomberg
• Hollande and Tsipras want Greek bailout agreed in late August – Reuters
• German industrial output slumps unexpectedly – Market Watch
• Polish agriculture finds new markets as Russian ban bites – BNE
• “Decisive” Ukraine debt talks stall as creditors snub Kyiv offer – BNE
• Wolfgang Schäuble, Debt Relief, and the Future of the Eurozone – Bruegel
• Spain’s economy: Back on its feet – Economist
• German Industrial Production Drops as Chinese Slowdown Looms – Bloomberg
• Why Greece Declined a Euro Holiday – Project-Syndicate
• What Greece Needs to Prosper – Project-Syndicate

United Kingdom

• Bank of England signals no rate rise this year as inflation remains ‘muted’ – Telegraph
• At last, wages are rising and productivity is growing – Telegraph
• Super Thursday: Bank of England votes 8-1 to hold interest rates – Guardian
• Average house price rises to 8.8 times local salary in England and Wales – Guardian
• UK trade deficit widens to £1.6bn in June – BBC
• Do interest rates need to rise in 2016? – BBC, Peston
• Building projects under threat from shortage of construction workers – Telegraph

United States

• Payrolls in U.S. Increased 215,000 in July in Broad-based Gain – Bloomberg
• US Job Growth Meets Fed’s “Some” Improvement Threshold – Marc to Market
• US market may pay a price for the vanishing public company – SCMP
• How Radio Explains America – Priceonomics
• Why the Fed should raise rates – Calafia Beach Pundit
• Did The US Lose The International Weapons Market? – IB Times
• Inflation Expectations Fall, Making Rate Hike ‘More Difficult to Justify’ – WSJ
• Is job growth slowing? Planned layoffs hit nearly 4-year high in July – LA Times
• Fed’s forecasts for jobless rate look out of step with history – Reuters
• U.S. companies may be hiring but lid on wages, investment hits productivity – Reuters
• A Marshall Plan for the United States – Project-Syndicate
• Why taxpayers will cover $39 billion in student debt – CBS
• The Tale of an Anxious Economic Recovery, Told by a Revived Textile Mill – NY Times
• For job growth, 33,000 — not 150,000 — is the new normal – Market Watch
• Why has real median household income declined in the prime working age demographic? It doesn’t look like lack of jobs – Bonddad
• Mildly Rich People Problems – Slate
• Sluggish wage growth could weigh on a Fed rate hike – Fortune
• Jobs report looks to have met Fed criteria for rate hike in September – Market Watch

Americas

• Economists Think Brazil Will Get Downgraded to Junk in the Next Few Years – Bloomberg
• The acceleration of Mexico’s car manufacturing industry – World Finance
• More data needed on Chinese investment in Canadian real estate, paper says – Financial Post
• ‘Playing with fire’: How the Tories’ renovation tax credit promise may affect Canada’s hot housing markets – Financial Post

Terra Incognita

• Christopher Pyne claimed $5000 expenses for Christmas family trip – Fairfax
• Fake foods: Australian producers face Asian retreat in counterfeit battle – Fairfax
• ASIC looks to put Jamie McIntyre out of property game – Fairfax
• RBA: Australia needs more Kiwis – Fairfax
• China fears ease as sharemarket panic cools, but RBA still sees some risks – Fairfax
• Australia holds steady on interest rates, tempers call for dollar fall – SCMP
• Blocking Adani coal mine approval ‘dangerous’ for Australia, ‘tragic’ for world: Tony Abbott – ABC
• Reserve Bank calls peak in unemployment but warns recovery will take years – ABC
• RBA trims Australia’s growth outlook – CNBC
• New Zealand’s growing attraction for workers – BBC
• Australia Central Bank Signals Unemployment Has Peaked, Pushes Back Growth Upswing – Bloomberg
• Dairy model ‘broken’: Landcorp boss – NZ Herald
• Future of Carmichael mine hinges not on skinks or snakes, but its business case – Guardian
• RBA unlikely to cut interest rates further after issuing upbeat economic forecast – Guardian
• Trans-Pacific Partnership could pose risk to public healthcare, leaked draft shows – Guardian
• Does Gautam Adani really need Galilee Basin coal? – The Conversation
• Reform adrift in pointless politics of Abbott government – Fairfax
• Why the dollar is heading for 60-something – Fairfax…Pottsie has the idea…
• Government finances threatened as drought shuts Ok Tedi mine – Nikkei Asian Review
• Labor leader Bill Shorten faces new grilling over AWU deals – Fairfax

Commodities

• Coal Industry Wobbles as Market Forces Slug Away – NY Times
• Two Top Commodity Traders Disagree on Oil’s Path After Rout – Bloomberg
• Rio Tinto CEO says coal will continue to provide foundation for energy production for ‘long, long time’ – ABC
• The Link Between Oil Reserves and Oil Prices – Financial Sense
• Don’t Expect an Oil Price Rebound This Side of 2017 – Financial Sense
• The Saudi Oil Price War Is Backfiring – Oil Price
• The Link Between Oil Reserves And Oil Prices – Oil Price
• Base metals come to terms with China’s ‘new normal’ in July – Platts
• Crude plumbs new depths as glut looks set to worsen – Nikkei Asian Review
• China tipped to massively increase pork imports as price of the meat soars – SCMP
• Hedge Fund Losses From Commodity Slump Sparking Investor Exodus – Bloomberg
• El Nino Defying Rain Seen Boosting Australia Wheat Yield Outlook – Bloomberg
• Coal is not the answer to India’s energy poverty, whatever Tony Abbott says – Guardian

Capital markets

• M.F. Report Recommends Delay in Elevating China’s Currency – NY Times
• The Irresistible China Trade That Keeps Burning Investors – Bloomberg
• Emerging Market Mayhem: Gross Warns Of “Debacle” As Currencies, Bonds Collapse – Zero Hedge
• One Third Of All Chinese ‘Gamblers’ Have Shut Their Equity Trading Accounts – Zero Hedge
• The Folly of the Macro Investor – Think Advisor
• The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web – Reformed Broker
• Exchange rate appreciations and growth: The drivers matter – VoxEU
• Currency changes and contracts: Lessons for Greece – VoxEU
• Two Centuries of Momentum – Newfound Research…well worth a read…
• Why Are People Worried About Bond Market Liquidity? – PragCap

Global Macro

• A Defeat for International Tax Cooperation – Project-Syndicate
• America in the Way – Project-Syndicate, Stiglitz
• Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles – Telegraph
• Suez Canal Upgrade May Not Ease Egypt’s Economic Journey – NY Times
• Is there an emerging opportunity in emerging markets? – Financial Post
• What really drives public debt – VoxEU
• A proposed research and policy agenda for systemic risk – VoxEU
• Why Is American Beer So Bland? – Atlantic
• The Age of the Robot Worker Will Be Worse for Men – Atlantic

…and furthermore…

• A New Deal for Debt Overhangs? – Project-Syndicate, Rogoff
• What to Make of Productivity Paradoxes – Caixin
• Still Too Big to Fail – Project-Syndicate
• Not even a third of speaking roles in popular movies go to women – Washington Post
• The surprising number of parents scaling back at work to care for kids – Washington Post
• ‘Right to Be Forgotten’ Online Could Spread – NY Times
• ON THE USE OF MATHEMATICS IN ECONOMICS – Pieria
• $60 Trillion Of World Debt In One Visualization – Zero Hedge
• It’s nonsense to believe more flexibility leads to greater productivity – Guardian
• Lie-bore: powerful bank regulators running out of excuses – The Conversation
• Let’s not regulate away the competition fintech can bring – The Conversation