Big iron production previews

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From Goldies:

BHP 4Q15 production result – Wednesday, 22 July 2015 Productivity improvement and further cost reductions will remain the primary agenda. (1) Iron ore – Strong Pt Hedland shipment data suggests a beat on FY15 guidance of 250mt; (2) US onshore – depressed oil price and increased rig productivity to result in capex/output downgrades; (3) Copper – Escondida grades continue to deteriorate; and (4) Coal – ongoing productivity gains expected.

RIO 2Q15 production result – Thursday, 16 July 2015 RIO will likely remain bullish on the longer term outlook for its commodity suite, further highlighting productivity gains and cost savings. (1) Iron ore – Shipping data suggests 2Q production is likely to disappoint; (2) Aluminium – Gove bauxite should be ramped up; (3) Copper – KUC ramping up; (4) Coal – mix likely to remain weighted to thermal over coking coal.

FMG 4Q15 production result – Thursday, 23 July 2015 Solid shipping data suggests iron ore production to be at top end of prior 160-165mtpa FY15 guidance. However, with iron ore now trading in the mid-US$40/t, the focus will again be on unit costs, and in particular the sustainability and magnitude of any further cash cost savings.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.