Investor mortgage bubble rages on

Advertisement

By Leith van Onselen

Today’s housing finance data for April, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), revealed yet another surge in investor finance commitments, which has now reached truly historic proportions.

According to the ABS, while owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.0% over the month, they were down by 1.4% over the year:

ScreenHunter_7679 Jun. 09 11.52
Advertisement

By contrast, the value of investor finance commitments were up another 2.6% in April and by 23.6% over the year, hitting another all-time high:

ScreenHunter_7674 Jun. 09 11.43

Investors accounted for a record 50.0% of total finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in the year to April 2015:

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_7677 Jun. 09 11.46

Meanwhile, first home buyer (FHB) demand remained tepid in April, rising to just 15.2% of total finance commitments even though they fell by a non-seasonally adjusted 9.2% over the month:

ScreenHunter_7673 Jun. 09 11.43 ScreenHunter_7672 Jun. 09 11.43
Advertisement

The comparison of the share of investor and FHB commitments is stark, with a near inverse correlation present, suggesting that investors are locking young Australians out of home ownership:

ScreenHunter_7676 Jun. 09 11.45

Despite the lies from the property lobby that investors are adding to housing supply, they remain primarily interested in hovering up existing homes:

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_7680 Jun. 09 12.00 ScreenHunter_7681 Jun. 09 12.01

Finally, the average loan size jumped by 2.8% in April to be up 8.7% over the year, although it has stabilised somewhat:

ScreenHunter_7675 Jun. 09 11.44
Advertisement

The investor bubble rages on…

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.