Investor mortgage bubble rages on

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By Leith van Onselen

Today’s housing finance data for April, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), revealed yet another surge in investor finance commitments, which has now reached truly historic proportions.

According to the ABS, while owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinancings) rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.0% over the month, they were down by 1.4% over the year:

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By contrast, the value of investor finance commitments were up another 2.6% in April and by 23.6% over the year, hitting another all-time high:

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Investors accounted for a record 50.0% of total finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in the year to April 2015:

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Meanwhile, first home buyer (FHB) demand remained tepid in April, rising to just 15.2% of total finance commitments even though they fell by a non-seasonally adjusted 9.2% over the month:

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The comparison of the share of investor and FHB commitments is stark, with a near inverse correlation present, suggesting that investors are locking young Australians out of home ownership:

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Despite the lies from the property lobby that investors are adding to housing supply, they remain primarily interested in hovering up existing homes:

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Finally, the average loan size jumped by 2.8% in April to be up 8.7% over the year, although it has stabilised somewhat:

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The investor bubble rages on…

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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.