From the AFR:
The IEA calculates said that assuming a 14.5 per cent slope of LNG sales prices to crude oil in long-term contracts, a drop in the crude oil price from $US100 a barrel to $US50 would reduce the Australian projects’ revenues by $US20 billion a year.
…The IEA appeared to place little confidence in Woodside Petroleum’s Browse floating LNG project going ahead…Gas consumption in Asia, regarded as the future engine for growth in the industry, proved “unexpectedly soft” in 2014, the IEA said. Chinese gas demand, which had been rising at 14 per cent a year, slowed to 8-9 per cent growth. LNG markets have quickly transformed from extreme tightness at the beginning of 2014 to oversupply, spot LNG prices have slumped, and regasification terminals stand idle in some cases.
…The IEA is now forecasting global gas demand will rise by 2 per cent a year through to 2020, down from last year’s forecast of 2.3 per cent annual growth. Demand in 2020 is now predicted to be 3926 bcm, falling short of last year’s forecast for 2019 demand.
This is based on a forward copy of the report. I will have it tomorrow to chew over. Looks decent on this evidence.
