Weekend Links 9-10 May, 2015

China

• PBOC Vows to Walk Fine Policy Line as Debt Endangers Growth
• China’s hunt for tigers and flies is taking a toll on business – FT.com
• Chinese outwards mercantilism: The art and practice of bundling – Vox
• China: Muni sea-change excites overseas investors – Euromoney
• More China developers expected to default despite property market recovery – SCMP
• The $364 Billion Real Estate Threat Inside China’s Biggest Banks – Bloomberg
• China’s crude oil imports hit record, coal shipments slump – Reuters
• China commodity imports add to slowing growth narrative – Reuters, Clyde Russell
• China triples number of state-owned firms in commodity derivatives trading – SCMP
• Former Banker Said to Be Detained amid Corruption Inquiry – Caixin
• Former Health Official Detained as Graft Fighters Target Hospitals – Caixin
• Central Bank Said to Mull Tool for Policy Banks to Buy Local Gov’t Bonds – Caixin
• China’s Exports Unexpectedly Fall 6 Percent – NY Times
• A compelling case for Chinese monetary easing – Bruegel (pdf)
• China’s imports, exports fall amid further signs of weakness in slowing economy – SCMP
• China’s Very High Mountain of Debt – Bloomberg
• An unbearable weight: China’s spiralling debt cannot be sustained – The Monthly
• China April Exports Unexpectedly Contract, Import Slide Worsens, More Stimulus Seen – IB Times
• Dongguan’s troubles portend tough times – Nikkei Asian Review

Asia

• Japan’s Good Fight – Project-Syndicate
• IMF says Asian economies to lead world growth in 2015 despite China slowdown – SCMP
• Malaysian Trafficking May Doom Pacific Trade Deal – Bloomberg
• One BRIC Member Squirreling Record Reserves Before Fed Storm – Bloomberg
• Japan joining global bond rout as BOJ shifts on inflation target – Japan Times

Europe

• The missing piece in the EMU puzzle: Economic policy coordination – Vox
• Greek bailout talks near ‘drop dead’ moment – FT.com
• Against the tide: Greece – the joker in the pack – Euromoney
• Russia’s road to deoffshorisation and capital amnesty still ‘under construction’ – BNE …this will be a big move when it happens…
• Germany v. Google – Project-Syndicate
• Greece could use ‘parallel currency’ as desperation grows – Telegraph
• C.B. Doubts Add to Uncertainties on Greek Debt Lifeline – NY Times
• Greece Will Make Next Debt Payment, Varoufakis Says – NY Times
• Time on Ukraine’s side? Data suggest otherwise – BNE
• Europe’s radical banking union – Bruegel (pdf)
• Why we should not blame the ECB for low returns on German savings – Bruegel
• Russia: Back from the brink – CNBC…is it?…
• German Industrial Production Falls as Economy Risks Grow – Bloomberg
• German Exports Rise More Than Forecast; Production Falls Unexpectedly – RTT
• Varoufakis Says Greece Ready to Take EU Impasse Down to the Wire – Bloomberg
• The great German government bond sell-off mystery – Guardian

United Kingdom

• Cameron and Crosby vindicated as Conservatives head for victory – FT.com…the vision splendid for the LNP?…
• Tax hikes won’t fix Britain’s economic mess, warn MPC founders – Telegraph
• Panic selling and gazundering hits the luxury homes market in London – Telegraph
• Cam again: The Conservatives have triumphed at the polls. Governing will be much harder – Economist
• International investors rush back into UK property market – Guardian
• Brexit threat looms over Britain’s election and Europe’s fate – AEP, Telegraph
• UK trade deficit drop fails to follow forecasts as weak eurozone hits exports – Guardian
• UK luxury real estate seen surging on Tory win – CNBC
• City of London Dodges Bullet as Cameron Wins, But EU Vote Looms – Bloomberg
• Will Britain Leave the EU? – Bloomberg
• Tory win in UK election brings increased risk of EU exit – Reuters
• THE ANTI-AUSTERITY ECONOMICS OF THE SNP – Pieria
• Moody’s sees UK rating risk if votes to leave EU – Irish Times

Americas

• New building permits hit record high in B.C. – Vancouver Sun
• Pullback in Toronto condo building not enough to stop plunge in prices, warns Fitch – Financial Post
• The Betrayal of Brazil – Bloomberg…classic read…

United States

• US employers add solid 223K jobs; rate 5.4 pct., 7-year low– AP
• Jobless claims hover near 15-year low, boost growth outlook – Reuters
• Hilsenrath: An Important Jobs Report for Fed Officials Eyeing Rate Increases – WSJ
• Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase Agree to Erase Debts From Credit Reports After Bankruptcies– NY Times
• Obama Chooses Nike Headquarters to Make His Pitch on Trade– NY Times
• High housing costs driving more Californians into poverty – LA Times
• S. Banks Regulators Should Be Wary of a Global Tit-For-Tat – WSJ
• Mortgage rates move higher for second week in a row – Washington Post
• El-Erian: American Dream Is Under Threat – Think Advisor
• The strong US dollar and recessions – XE.com
• The American poverty traps – Bruegel…is Australia setting up something similar?…
• Nike backs Obama on trade with pledge to create 10,000 U.S. jobs – Reuters
• S. job growth seen regaining steam, keeping Fed rate hike on track – Reuters
• Here’s How Much New York and San Francisco’s Tight Housing Markets Are Hurting the Economy – Bloomberg

Terra Incognita

• Property market boom weighs on Australia – FT.com
• RBA remains dovish, but that’s no surprise– Fairfax, Pascoemeter
• Budget 2.0 will determine future of Joe Hockey-Tony Abbott partnership – Fairfax
• Will Joe Hockey use the 2015 budget to stimulate a stalling economy?– Guardian
• Reserve Bank of Australia statement leaves door open for more rate cuts–Guardian
• Safe in New Zealand, Graft Fugitives Just out of China’s Reach – Caixin…and how many in Oz?…
• Where Tesla leads, Australia is reluctant to follow – ABC
• Australian bank profits in pictures – ABC
• Reserve Bank cut rates on job concerns, China risks – ABC
• Australian Banks May Just Be Getting Started on Raising Capital – Bloomberg…you betcha…
• Australian bank crisis-proofing takes toll on NAB – Reuters
• University of Western Australia pulls out of Bjorn Lomborg centre – Fairfax
• Renewable energy target: Labor and the government agree to a number but sticking points remain – Fairfax
• How Joe Hockey’s disastrous first budget fell apart, brick by brick – Guardian
• Drugs and terrorism threat: thousands of airport staff not security-checked – Fairfax
• Australian national accounts – oh, the irony – Bill Mitchell
• Japan to bid for Australian submarine project – Japan Times…should go down well in Adelaide…
• Mining tensions grow as Bougainville independence vote nears – Nikkei Asian Review
• China’s most wanted fugitives in Australia – Fairfax…and how many investment properties do they have?…
• Federal Budget 2015: Tony Abbott gambles on the fairness factor – Fairfax
• Competition, rising costs, regulation: why Australian banks are finding it tough – Fairfax
• ATO hunts down foreign buyers of residential property breaking the law – Fairfax
• Meet Western Australia, our state in denial – Fairfax, Gitto
• What’s holding the Australian economy back? Companies – Fairfax, Maiden
• Speaking with: Keith Jacobs on the politics of housing – The Conversation
• Busting the myth that Australia has ‘big government’ – The Conversation
• Budget explainer: what is a structural deficit and why does Australia have one? – The Conversation
• Budget explainer: What do key economic indicators tell us about the state of the economy? – The Conversation
• Non-resources states Vic and NSW now in best budget position – The Conversation
• Agriculture could be the next boom for Australia – The Conversation ..well selling it off is certainly a money spinner…

Capital Markets

• Investors get stark reality check as global bond market comes unglued – Financial Post
• Investors stung by eurozone bond volatility – FT.com
• Yellen’s warning paves way for further bond market volatility – SCMP
• The global bond bubble is finally bursting – and here is why – Telegraph
• Violent bond moves signal tectonic shifts in global markets – Telegraph
• Who Woke the Bond Bears? – WSJ
• The Shifting Consensus on Capital Controls: Gallagher’s ‘Ruling Capital’ – Economonitor
• The Age of Financial Secrecy Is Ending – Think Advisor
• Regulation: Banks brace for Basel interest-rate risk push – Euromoney
• Did Libor rigging help Deutsche Bank avoid a bailout? – Euromoney…how could it not?…
• ‘Game is up’ for bank DTAs in Europe – Euromoney
• Credit Risk Isn’t Worth It – ETF.com
• End of the bull market? Get ready for the impending zombie investor apocalypse – Financial Post

Commodities

• Where Are Oil Prices Headed? Two Experts Make Their Conflicting Cases – WSJ
• Oil unlikely to hit $US100 a barrel, rebound puts global recovery at risk– Fairfax
• Wheat heavyweights battle for global market share – FT.com
• Bears feast on strong coffee crop forecasts – FT.com
• Commodity prices: Over a hundred years of booms and busts – Vox
• Oil’s bull run hides a deep disconnect, warn crude traders – Financial Post
• 45 year returns matrix for gold – Mineweb
• Forget price slumps. Oil’s days have always been numbered – World Finance
• Silver’s top 10s: Countries, companies and mines – Mineweb
• Asia nuclear splurge to unlock uranium motherlode – Mineweb
• There’s One Part of the World Where the Oil Industry Is Booming – Bloomberg
• After Wall Street Banks Exit Controversial Aluminum Trade, Prices Return To Normal – IB Times
• Funds At Record Short Against Wheat – Short Side of Long

Global Macro, Investing, Economics

• Inside investment: Zero interest rate policy – a dystopian nightmare – Euromoney
• The strategic under-reporting of banks’ risk – Vox
• Rumors and runs in opaque markets: Evidence from the Panic of 1907 – Vox
• Global Slowdown – Does it affect the U.S? – Recession Alert…did the world enter recession in February?…
• New and Improved Trade Agreements? – Project-Syndicate…notice nobody talks about free trade anymore?…
• The death of the West has been greatly exaggerated – Telegraph
• When Will the Middle East Settle Down? – Economonitor
• The Great Depression and the Great Recession in the North Atlantic – Brad Delong, WCEG
• Can an old tool help fix the looming retirement security crisis? – Washington Post
• The Longest Cycle on Record – OppenheimerFunds (pdf) …worth a look…
• Debt hangover ruins the American dream – FT.com, …Gillian Tett, student debt hangs over more than just US…
• Digital Single Market: setting the stage – Bruegel
• Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt – BIS
• Great Game between China and US alive and well – SCMP
• Russia, China sign raft of deals in Moscow – AP
• The Great Disconnect——Central Bank Driven “Markets” Have Nothing To Do With Economics – David Stockman

…and Furthermore….

• Safeguarding the Open Internet – Project-Syndicate
• The Price of Nice Nails – NY Times
• Triumph of the Unthinking – NY Times, Krugman…he has a point…
• Did Tesla Just Kill Nuclear Power? – Forbes
• The World’s Largest Companies 2015 – Forbes
• Why Energy Storage is About to Get Big – and Cheap – Ramez Naam
• Study: Men are lazy to their core – Washington Post
• How companies decide whether to give experimental drugs to dying patients – Washington Post
• Always negotiate pay — even on your first job out of college – Washington Post
• Where’s The Beef? – ThirtyFiveEight…good read…
• Income inequality and citizenship: Quantifying the link – Vox
• Debt supercycle, not secular stagnation – Vox
• Get ready: the cyber-criminals are coming, and they’re better than ever – World Finance
• What’s behind surging public university tuition – CBS
• Why solar is critical to confronting climate change – CBS
• Global arms industry struggles for sales – World Finance
• SPREADSHEETS OF POWER: How economic modelling is used to circumvent democracy and shut down debate – The Monthly
• Japanese researchers find drinking coffee reduces mortality risk – Japan Times…would 5 long blacks a day make you immortal?…