Hockey’s iron ore nonsense model

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You have to wonder at what it will take to get some system hugging media to recognise balderdash. Today’s example is Bartho at Dad’s Army who writes:

Is the $US48 a tonne forecast for the average iron ore price next financial year optimistic or pessimistic? It depends on whether you are an iron ore and steel optimist or pessimist.

…It would appear that Treasury and the government simply chose to average out recent prices rather than trying to develop a more sophisticated forecast of their own. Given the very wide range of market predictions of the price, both in the near term and longer term, that’s a reasonable and relatively conservative approach.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.