I have been stunned at the swiftness at which one tiny shift in BHP’s iron ore expansion plans has morphed into global media tub-thumping for a new iron ore bull market. In my view this is classic bear market rally stuff, stuck looking in the rear vision mirror at yesterday’s boom. Leading the charge is Business Insider which sees:
On commodity markets it’s clear that what we saw earlier this month in iron ore and perhaps what we’ve seen in the oil market was exactly the type of pessimistic crescendo — when all the bulls are either cleared out or give up — we need to see for a bottom.
I disagree. Great bear markets do not end with a “pessimistic crescendo”. They go through a relentless series of humiliating and credibility-destroying bull traps before finally exhausting themselves with a whimper.
