Here are the iron ore charts for April 28, 2015:
Spot was up firmly and Tianjin benchmark added 0.9% to $59.20. But paper market flamed out. Dalian fell back yesterday afternoon from its highs to finish basically flat and is down 1 point overnight. Singapore 12 month swaps are forging lower. Rebar average eked out another small gain but doesn’t look at all convincing.
My view remains that there is enough stimulus hype to keep steel mills restocking within their recent range, which will take another week or two. That should see us bounce around $60 for a little while then price erosion will return and accelerate as RIO dumps its next big supply lump in June. Q3 is shaping as a shocker as Roy Hill commences shipments as well and the Chinese structural adjustment runs into the seasonal steel slowdown.
