Morgan Stanley has released a detailed new report, entitled The Bitter Aftertaste of Sugar, which examines sugar consumption and its impact on long-term growth in developed and emerging markets, as well as the expected incidence of sugar-related illnesses such as diabetes and obesity and their impact on the workforce.
According to the report, “average calorie consumption globally has increased by around 30% over the last 50 years”, with diets “shifting from heavy consumption of grains and starchy staples, to more protein-intensive meals, oils, fat and sugar”.
The report’s simulations find that “a reduced workforce and lower productivity (via premature deaths, exit from the labor force and/or or poorer performance at work) can significantly affect economic growth relative to baseline projections. This is of particular concern in sectors such as services because they are labor intensive” (see next chart).
Countries most at risk are those where obesity and related illnesses are already high, including the US, Mexico, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, and the UK (see next chart).
By contrast, Scandinavian countries, some other European nations, and Japan are likely to fair best.
There is some good news, however, with sugar consumption beginning to fall in developed markets, although they are rising in emerging markets (see next chart).
The study also found that consumer awareness of the sugar content of food is limited and that sugar taxes are unpopular. As a result, tackling “diabesity” requires a combination of public sector education and awareness campaigns, along with private sector innovation.
