Martin: Sydney bubble to delay RBA cut

This should be taken seriously. Peter Martin’s sources are solid:

Concern about the Sydney property market is shaping as an impediment to another interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank board’s next meeting in April, encouraging it postpone the decision until May, a week before the federal budget.

…The bank will get preliminary figures for March by mid-April and final figures for March by the end of April, making its May 5 board meeting the ideal one at which to assess the extent to which banks are restraining their lending in accordance with the guidance from APRA.

The bank is concerned that lenders to the booming Sydney market might ignore APRA, deciding to pay whatever extra capital charges it levies to sell more investment loans.

…The bank believes it will almost certainly have to cut its cash rate at least once more, to counteract weakness in the economy and the potential for rising unemployment.

I would interpret that as a leak.