Australia to pay for submarine Abbottalypse

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By Leith van Onselen

Slowly but surely, the dirty dealings around the Abbott Government’s submarines procurement policy are coming to the surface.

Late last week, Graeme Richardson revealed via The Australian that the Prime Minister had provided his Japanese counterpart, Shinzo Abe, with a hand shake undertaking to buy Japanese submarines in exchange for Japan signing the Australia- Japan Free Trade Agreement.

Richardson also claimed that Tony Abbott’s promise to South Australian senators that the Australian Submarine Corporation (ASC) would be allowed to compete in a competitive tender for the submarines contract, in exchange for their support at last Monday’s leadership vote, was never going to be fulfilled:

As soon as the ballot was over, the backflip began. The weasel words flowed. We will have an evaluation rather than a tender because the Japanese believe they have the promise to get a nod without a competitive tender…

On Monday, Abbott said there had been no secret deals. I am reliably — very reliably — informed there are documents in existence that will disprove this. Whether they are revealed by leak or Freedom of Information ferreting, this would be the end of Abbott’s prime ministership — it would be a broken promise too far and one denial too many. I am not sure who is the bigger mug — Abbott for promising the tender or Edwards for believing him. Forty-three votes would have looked a great deal worse than 39.

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Meanwhile, strategic policy expert, Hugh White, has slammed Abbott’s decision to buy the submarines from Japan, without undertaking a thorough competitive tender, as a massive risk for Australian taxpayers and a “captain’s call” too far:

Last week Tony Abbott did not just back away from promises allegedly made to South Australian back-benchers. He stood up in Parliament and mocked the idea of choosing our new submarines through a competitive tender process. That makes it clearer than ever that he intends to sign an agreement with Japan just as soon as he can, without seriously considering the alternatives.

This is the biggest captain’s pick of them all – in the dollars involved, in the consequences of getting it wrong, and in the lack of elementary due diligence in making really momentous national decisions. There is simply no precedent in Australia for a defence decision of such importance to be made so irresponsibly.

Japan builds fine submarines but there are major doubts that they are the best bet for us, and there is no way we can be sure without a rigorous competition against the other possibilities…

Hugh White is spot on. A competitive tender is the only way to ensure that Australia gets the best submarines at the best price. Moreover, given the submarines are unlikely to be delivered for another decade, there is ample time to find an appropriate supplier that provides the best deal for taxpayers.

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That Abbott has engaged in a side deal with the Japanese, rather than undertaking basic due diligence and a competitive tender process, is yet more evidence that he is not fit to lead the nation. It has also thrown any Budget credibility that the Coalition had left out the window.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.