ANZ destroys its iron ore forecasts

My sympathies go out the ANZ’s Mark “The Pervanator” Pervan this morning after ANZ crushed its iron ore forecasts by 24% for this year and 30% next.

“We think that while large volumes of low cost supply continue to be commissioned, and the big miners take a more realistic view on profit margins, the floor price and long-term price assumptions need to be lowered.

“Prices will firm in 2018 as the surplus diminishes, but supply will remain well above historic levels for the rest of the decade.”

I’ve lost count how many times The Pervanator has had to do this but this time he’s gotten ahead of the pack with what look like  prices of $58 this year and $60 next.

Admirable! But sadly, still not enough. The Pervanator will again be overtaken and there will be no price rebound in 2018, either. More like the mid-2020s.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. MP’s forecasts have, historically, been positively embarrassing… and he has the tendency to steadfastly ignore evidence to the contrary.

    ANZ did a big swag of debt to Roy Hill didn’t they? I wonder…

      • Well I am largely Irish ancestry – so I am sure I don’t know what you mean???

        Rather – I would politely suggest its a big-bang moment – its the point you go back to the bankers and say, ummm, yeah, its going to cost 20-30% more than we expected…, ummm, how much do you want???? Hangon, I will just grab my ankles…