ALP support rose to 57.5% (up 1%) well ahead of the L-NP 42.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends of January 31/ February 1 & 7/8, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,939 Australian electors aged 18+.
Primary support for the ALP rose to 41.5% (up 2% – the highest since June 2014) well ahead of the L-NP 35.5% (down 2%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (unchanged), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (down 1%) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 9%.
Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (4.5%) with little support in all other states.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 89pts (down 5pts) this week. Now 45.5% (up 2%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 34.5% (down 3%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ – the lowest number of Australians saying this since mid-June 2013 just before Julia Gillard was removed as Prime Minister and replaced by Kevin Rudd.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows support is still higher for the ALP amongst women: ALP 59% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 41% (up 0.5%). Support amongst men has strengthened for the ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 71% cf. L-NP 29%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 66.5% cf. L-NP 33.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%; 50-64yr olds ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
