Weekend Links 17-18 January 2015

MB is almost back at full strength! Here is the timetable for the coming month:

• Chris Becker will maintain normal operations from Monday 5 January until Sunday 18 January.
• David Llewellyn-Smith will take over from Monday 19 January.
• Leith van Onselen will resume from Monday 26 January.

Please note comments after links below in italics are Gunnamatta, in brackets are mine.

Asia/China

• China’s FDI growth slows while outbound investment soars – SCMP
• Beijing rolls out fresh support amid slowing growth – SCMP
• China Unveils Fresh Support Measures As Economy Shows Renewed Weakness – IB Times
• Machinery orders heighten doubts over pace of economic recovery – Japan today
• Money supply growth fails to maintain momentum – China Daily
• China’s very strong gold demand start to 2015 – Mineweb
• China unveils unified pension system – China Daily
• Chinese spy chief Ma Jian placed under graft probe, authorities confirm – SCMP
• Chinese brokers punished over margin trading – SCMP
• China has policy buffers to sustain growth: World Bank – China Daily
• Fantasia the Latest Chinese Developer to Stumble – Finance Asia
• China banks’ 2014 new yuan lending hits record high – Want China Times
• Diversified housing rental market to be created in China in 3 years – Want China Times
• China’s shadow banking is back with a vengeance—and it brings bad omens with it – Quartz
• Backward guidance, Chinese style – Bruegel
• Year after Launch of Shanghai FTZ, Three New Zones Set to Open – Caixin
• PBOC Hits Back at Criticism of Currency Swap Deal with Russia – Caixin

Americas/United States

• Consumer Prices in U.S. Drop Most in Six Years as Fuel Falls – Bloomberg
• U.S. consumer prices post biggest drop in six years – Reuters
• Fed should not tighten policy in 2015, Kocherlakota says – Reuters
• Global Aging: More Headwinds for U.S. Stocks? – San Francisco Fed (h/t Migtronix)
• U.S. Producer Price Index Falls With Oil and Food Prices; Shows Upward Pressure Elsewhere – Haver Analytics
• Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index Deteriorates; Pricing Weakens Sharply – Haver Analytics
• Countdown To Liftoff Getting Longer – Bespoke
• Obama Stands At Crossroads On Financial Reform – ProPublica
• Subprime Lending Drives Spending – Seeking Alpha
• The US Hasn’t “Decoupled” And There Ain’t No Giant “Oil Tax Cut” – Contra Corner
• The Impending Collapse Of Venezuela – Forbes
• Venezuela Announces Financing From Qatari Banks As Oil Prices Continue To Fall – IB Times
• Robert Reich Is Right: Higher Wages Aren’t Coming Back, And Here’s Why – Forbes
• Signs of a Decline in Financial Distress Connected to Medical Bills – NY Times
• This Could Be Hillary Clinton’s Economic Policy – Time
• Corporate profits slip, raising concerns – CBS
• Goods held hostage in West Coast port battle – CBS
• Foreclosures fell in 2014 to levels before housing bust – CBS
• The shale oil revolution is in danger – Fortune
• Will Global Deflation Risk Pinch US Economic Growth? – Capital Spectator
• Why Canadians can expect low interest rates for longer — much longer: Morgan Stanley – Financial Post
• Obama Proposes New Muni Bonds for Public-Private Infrastructure – Bloomberg
• US flirts with deflation as prices fall by largest since financial crisis – Telegraph

Europe/UK

• World deflationary forces have swept away Switzerland’s defences – Telegraph
•  Greek deposit flight forces banks to apply for emergency support – Telegraph
•  Amazon’s Luxembourg tax deal to be scrutinised by Brussels – Guardian
• Years of dithering has given Draghi a QE dilemma – Guardian
• Swiss currency shock: blame the bank in Frankfurt not Zurich – Guardian
• Swiss Franc U-Turn Is A Realistic Move As SNB Cannot Stop The Tide – Forbes
• Shifting Power between Creditors and Debtors in EMU – Marc to Market
• We need to rethink the Green Belt – City Metric
• Why the Swiss franc can’t escape being a safe haven – BBC
• Francs, Fear and Folly – Krugman, NY Times
• THE RISK OF DEFLATION IN 2015 – Pieria
• Tata Steel’s possible divestment prompts re-evaluation of Britain’s role in global industry – Platts
• Clock Will Be Ticking for Greece’s New Government – Pragmatic Capitalism
• Currency risk: Poles were slow to get out of Swiss-franc mortgages. Now they are paying the price – Economist
• Switzerland was once a safe haven. That is no longer true today – Telegraph
• Quantitative easing in the Eurozone: It’s possible without fiscal transfers – Vox
• Why a Grexit is more costly for Germany than a default inside the euro area – Bruegel
• Russia’s tech sector defies downturn – BNE
• Russia May Resort to Currency Restrictions If Outflows Continue to Mount – Bloomberg
• Switzerland: an expensive experiment – RWER

Maaate

• Auckland currency broker closes after Swiss shock – NZ Herald
• ExxonMobil Papua New Guinea gas deal could help expand LNG project – Reuters
• ANZ to sell first Basel III foreign bank dim sum – Finance Asia
• Aussie 10-Year Yield Drops Below RBA Cash Rate After Swiss Move – Bloomberg
• GP visits will cost you more, Minister Sussan Ley warns – Fairfax
• Australian dollar could fall through US70¢: Blackrock – Fairfax
• Tax cheats to win from ATO cuts, insiders say – Fairfax...what has happened with compliance functions across the APS is an utter disgrace…
• Why everything you think about the economy in 2015 is probably wrong – Fairfax…the case for everything is reasonably OK with the Australian economy – not convincing…
• Will Treasurer Hockey start the year on a positive note? – Fairfax
• Woodside cost cutting signals likely to lead to further Browse project delays, analysts say – ABC
• Australian housing near world’s most expensive but forecast to rise further – ABC

Commodities/Energy

• Schlumberger to cut 9,000 jobs as oil prices plunge – Guardian
• Oil price floor could be a long way down – Reuters, Hadas
• Oil jumps as IEA sees signs market ‘tide will turn’ – Reuters
• Chinese funds aggressively shorting commodities linked to copper dive – Reuters
• LNG buyers should be wary of getting what they want – Reuters, Russell
• Oil Update – Marc to Market
• In 2015 outlook, Goldman growls about gold – Mineweb
• The crude price plunge and LNG, a tenuous link – Platts
• IEA says tide will turn for oil, but warns collapse is ‘historic shift’ for market – Financial Post
• Ignore The Big Upheaval In The Oil Patch – ETF.com
• IEA Sees Oil-Price Recovery; Cuts 2015 Non-OPEC Output Estimate – Bloomberg

Capital

• End to euro cap on Swiss franc ensnares brokers – FT.com
• Finance can cope with cheap oil – FT.com
• Is the Euro the New Yen? Increasingly So. – ETFtrends
• UK broker enters insolvency after Swiss franc losses – Investment Week
• It’s A Sector Pickers Market: Why It Pays To Invest In The Right Sector – SeeItMarket
• Switzerland Just Rang The Bell: The Era Of Central Bank Omnipotence Is Ending – Contra Corner
• These investments could get creamed in the Swiss avalanche – MarketWatch
• Still Trying to Make Sense of SNB’s Bombshell – Marc to Market
• Euro’s March Lower Getting Boost From Swiss Bankers: Currencies – Bloomberg

Global Macro

• Implications of the SNB decision extend far beyond Switzerland – FT.com, El-Erian
• Can long-term global growth be saved? – McKinsey
• Beware Of Politicians Bearing Household Analogies – Steve Keen, Forbes…good read…
• Putting the last three big oil crashes in perspective – Maclean’s
• Oil Prices And The Significant, Long-Lasting Impact On The Economy – Forbes
• Global Macro Update – Short Side of Long
• TURNING JAPANESE – Pieria
• THE MYTH OF THE STRUCTURAL DEFICIT – Pieria
• Global carbon taxation: Intuition from a back-of-the-envelope calculation – Vox
• Swiss mess could make oil plunge seem like minor hiccup – MarketWatch
• The Swiss Give a Scary Lesson on the Limits of Central Banks – NY Times
• Bracing for Stagnation – Project-Syndicate
• Preparing for the Unknown Unknowns – Project-Syndicate

And Furthermore….

• More than a third of American workers don’t get sick leave, and they’re making the rest of us ill – Washington Post…nothing more despicable than the punter coming to work when sick…
• Four Scenarios for the Future of Donbas – New Eastern Europe
• Do the wealthy pay lower taxes than the middle class? – CNBC
• The Discounted Cash Flow Method: Company Valuation Tools – SeeItMarket…for those unfamiliar…
• 3 Investing Principles That Every Dirty Old Man (and you) Should Understand – SeeItMarket…worth bearing in mind…
• Revealed: World’s Most Expensive Construction Markets – Gulf Business
• Years After Tobacco Deals Sold, SEC Says Rating Agencies Still Conflicted – ProPublica
• The Fallacy of ‘Love What You Do’ – Inc
• Mt. Gox chief was thought by U.S. to be Silk Road mastermind – Japan Times
• ECONOMISTS AND THEIR POLITICS – Pieria
• WHY THE WORLD’S BIGGEST MILITARY KEEPS LOSING WARS – Pieria
• Piketty finally admits marginal productivity theory is wrong – RWER
• The Second Disease Ever Eradicated – Atlantic
• Why Changing Careers Is So Hard – Atlantic
• The Dangerous Underestimation of Climate Change’s Cost – Atlantic
• Exactly How Much Would It Cost to Make Public Colleges Tuition-Free? – Slate
• What Good Are Economists? – Project-Syndicate, Shiller
• 7 ways to stop Terrorism – Barry Ritholz (must read of the weekend, all true, all not going to happen sadly)

and finally…..

• GROWERS STRUGGLE WITH GLUT OF LEGAL POT IN WASHINGTON STATE – Associated Press

The Super Rich and Us: Episode 2