Weekend Links 10-11 January 2015

MB is not yet back at full strength! Here is the timetable for the coming month:

• Chris Becker will maintain normal operations from Monday 5 January until Sunday 18 January.
• David Llewellyn-Smith will take over from Monday 19 January.
• Leith van Onselen will resume from Monday 26 January.

Asia/China

• China’s CPI in line at 1.5 pct in December as deflation pressures persist – SCMP
• Liquidator runs after mistress of bankrupt former chief secretary Rafael Hui – SCMP
• The 7 Tln Yuan Stimulus that Isn’t – Caixin
• China Could See Capital Outflows This Year, Experts Say – Caixin
• Three good reasons to be bullish on China in 2015 – Bruegel, O’Neill
• Standard Chartered axes equities business and cut 4000 jobs – China Daily
• A lesson for China from Russian crisis – China Daily
• Interview on Chinese CPI and PPI data for December – Michael Pettis
• China’s annual consumer inflation at five-year low – Global Times
• Geely launches electric car rentals – Global Times
• Analysts fear China financial crisis as deflation looms – Guardian
• China nabs 680 suspects in ‘Fox Hunt’ operation – China Daily
• China central bank to maintain ‘prudent’ monetary policy in 2015 – Reuters

Americas/United States

• The (Real) Bank of America – Politico …superb read…
• U.S. payrolls rise solidly, but weak wages steal limelight – Reuters
• U.S. economy added 252,000 jobs in December – Washington Post
• Low wages, inflation should keep Fed on hold: policymakers – Reuters
• Fathers’ versus sons’ wage rates in the USA (2 graphs) – RWER
• The End of the American Middle Class? – Economonitor
• US unemployment rate falls to 5.6% – FT.com
• Job Growth Fails to Help Paychecks of Workers – NY Times
• A Sweet Spot For The US Economy…. Maybe – Capital Spectator
• A Solid Gain For December Payrolls – Capital Spectator
• Cheap gas may take the sting out of falling wages – Fortune
• December Jobs Report: Good on jobs, but red flag on wages – Bonddad
• The Fed’s Puzzle: How Low Can Unemployment and Inflation Both Go? – WSJ
• Capital Economics Says Fed Could Raise Rates at March Meeting – WSJ
• Despite Falling US Unemployment, Numbers Of Long-Term Unemployed And Those Who’ve Given Up On Work Remain High – IB Times
• US growth story remains unconvincing – FT.com
• Why the Fed Won’t Tank the Stock Market – Bloomberg
• US export economy fails to import jobs – FT.com
• Why China Just Made A $20B Investment In Venezuela – IB Times

Europe/UK

• Europe’s Lapse of Reason – Project-Syndicate, Stiglitz…good read…
• Draghi’s Deflation Nightmare – Bloomberg
• Monte dei Paschi says ECB asking for 14.3 percent core capital level – Reuters
• ECB Said to Study Bond-Purchase Models Up to 500 Billion Euros – Bloomberg
• German Industrial Production Falls Amid Plunge in Energy Output – Bloomberg
• Meet Russia’s repo (wo)men – BNE
• EU to provide €1.8bn extra funds for foundering Ukraine – BNE
• How to reduce the Greek debt burden? – Bruegel
• London Property Slowdown Drags U.K. House-Price Growth Below 10% – Bloomberg
• Oil Losses Force Norway to Consider Measures to Back Economy – Bloomberg
• Surging Greek Bond Yields Risk Distorting Election Threat – Bloomberg
• Why Fighting Oligarchs Is a Bad Idea – Bloomberg
• Russia ‘has deteriorated significantly’ as Fitch cuts credit rating – Telegraph
• Britain’s self-perpetuating property racket – Wolf, FT.com…classic read…
• Clearing: European banks weigh up US dollar clearing options – Euromoney
• France and Italy: The ABCs of the European fiscal framework – Bruegel
• German Economy Stutters As Exports And Production Drop – IB Times
• Unemployment special: out-of-work youths plague Italy – World Finance
• Greek Eurozone exit could be on the horizon – World Finance
• IMF resumes debt talks with Ukraine – World Finance
• Is the ECB Sabotaging Itself? – WSJ
• Eurozone Deflation May Be The Final Push For European Central Bank Bond-Buying Plan – IB Times
• THE ROTTENNESS AT THE HEART OF THE BRITISH ECONOMY – Pieria
• Is low inflation translating into lower wage growth in Germany already? – Bruegel
• Against the tide: Italy is a boiling frog – Euromoney

Commodities/Energy

• Grains to trump oilseeds in 2015: Maguire – Reuters
• Entire oil complex slips into contango for first time since 2009 – Reuters…and what does that tell us?…
• Oil heads for seventh weekly loss as supply glut drags – Reuters
• Should Commodity Futures Margins Be Regulated? – Economonitor
• What went wrong with the Great Commodity Boom? – Financial Post
• The shale oil revolution is in danger – Fortune
• ‘No white knight coming’: Distressed natural gas producers hunker down amid new energy reality – Financial Post
• Only 1.6 percent of world’s oil production at risk at $40: WoodMackenzie – Reuters
• New year, same old warehouse problems for London Metal Exchange – Mineweb
• Top 100 mining companies: Ugly at the top – Mineweb
• Bakken oil producers need $55 to keep production steady: Kemp – Reuters

Capital

• Stock market risk is higher today than it was in the dot-com era – MarketWatch
• Top 5 Commodity Trades Of 2015 – ETF.com
• 2015: The Year Of Currency Hedging – ETF.com
• Goldman Sachs: Euro to Slide to Parity Against Dollar by End of 2016 – WSJ
• 15 Trades for 2015, a Plan for a Changing World – WSJ
• The Crisis and the renminbi’s international role – Vox
• Demographics, Unemployment Rate and Inflation – Calculated Risk
• Why bitcoin is poised for big momentum in 2015 – Fortune
• Deflation is back, and markets are freaking out – Washington Post

Global Macro

• Volatility set to test the price of liquidity – SCMP
• One Economic Theory to Explain Everything – Bloomberg
• Investment banks pile into big data analytics – Euromoney
• Why we should welcome the hype of another dotcom bubble – Telegraph
• Clearing: European banks weigh up US dollar clearing options – Euromoney
• Preferential trading agreements: Helping economic reform in developing countries – Vox
• Combatting Eurozone deflation: QE for the people – Vox…interesting link between QE, house prices, and mortgage debt
• BASIC MISTAKE – WHY ONE LESSON OF ‘FINANCE 1.01’ IS ‘WRONG. ALL WRONG’ – Pieria
• The global economy could be on the verge of a once-in-a-generation transformation – Telegraph
• 2015 Black Swans – or another BRIC in the wall – Mineweb
• ON ECONOMIC FORECASTING – Pieria
• Uncertain economic fortunes in a world of cheap oil – FT.com

And Furthermore….

• Blame the rise of the plutocrats on politics not capitalism – FT.com…well the capitalism purchased politics, didn’t it….
• Most of America’s rich think the poor have it easy – Washington Post...not just America’s…
• How LBJ’s ideas outlived the political coalitions that achieved them – Washington Post
• Democracy and the threat of revolution: New evidence –Vox…yes, people are at their best when riled…
• Economics Stars Swing Left – Bloomberg
• Climate change scaremongering won’t trouble oil junkies – Telegraph
• This is what the Monopoly board would look like today – Telegraph

Maaate:

• Expect some big mining cost falls in Q1 – Mineweb
• ASIC’s Medcraft faces carpeting from senators over fraud case – Fairfax …try roasting fellas…
• Macquarie clearly spells out Barrick’s escalating risks in downgrade – Mineweb
• Retail sales miss expectations in November – Fairfax
• Renewable investment dives in Australia, bucking global trend – Fairfax…are we getting anything right?…
• Recession hurts Japan’s fight to change suicide culture – Fairfax
• What does a lower Australian dollar mean for consumers? – Fairfax …pain…
• Tony Abbott says any changes to the GST would require ‘measure of bipartisanship’ – Fairfax…this guy wants bipartisanship?…

and finally…..

set aside an hour of your time to watch this BBC documentary