Syriza pulls ahead in Greek election polls

Next week could be a doozy for markets. From Reuters:

Greece’s anti-bailout opposition party Syriza appears to be gaining momentum with less than a week before Sunday’s snap election, moving further ahead of the co-ruling conservatives in three separate opinion polls.

Syriza, which wants to renegotiate a chunk of Greek debt and end austerity measures, saw its poll lead grow to 6.5 points on Monday, according to a survey for the University of Macedonia conducted for Greece’s SKAI Television, up from a 4.5 point lead shown by the same pollster last week.

Syriza would garner 33.5 percent of the vote, up from 31.5 percent, while Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ New Democracy party, which has pushed through unpopular reforms as part of an international bailout, stood unchanged on 27 percent.

A Syriza victory could trigger a standoff with Greece’s European Union and IMF lenders and unleash a new financial crisis.

The Syriza platform is to say no to the IMF across the board, tell Europe where to go and drop out of the euro if pushed. However, the leader, Alexis Tsipras, has made these threats before and rolled over in an attempt to form a coalition post the last election.

This is likely another bluff to secure better terms.

Comments

  1. Yes. And better terms will be secured.

    Its a massive omelette that would otherwise (on grexit) need to be unscrambled.

    Been to Greece lately? Sooo many properties owned by Germans.

  2. And Germany says it can so without them. Upping the ante. All a game. But methinks Tsipras loves the media too much to exit the limelight.

    • @PhilW

      Indeed there is an upside for the EZ, it will hasten the demise of what is a failed exercise.

      With its demise there is still hope for union of sorts but not currency union.

      And finally hope, the Greeks Italians Spanish et al need hope and soon.

  3. Seems the smart money has already voted.
    Some reports verbal and internet, indicate up to E10 billion have been transferred from Greek banks in the last 3 weeks with speculation that money is in Switzerland, for a holiday pending a probable collapse of the Euro.
    A couple of days after their election, we get to see who gets the cigar for running this Queensland mess. WW

  4. Will be interesting to see if syriza sticks to the anti-EU/anti-IMF approach once elected, or whether they will be persuaded to moderate their approach

    And if they do it will be interesting to see how long until something unfortunate befalls Tsipras (ala dominique strauss kahn)

  5. Syriza wasn’t in the last coalition. PASOK and DIMAR were in with New Democracy. Tsipras was not involved at all. It was DIMAR (Democratic Left) which caved in and has now been polling somewhere are 0.5% in the latest polling.

    I am not sure that SYRIZA is buffling but ANEL (Independent Greeks) who are the right wing anti-bailout allies of SYRIZA might be.

      • Sorry, I have been studying the politics up on the politics in Greece as part of my bedtime reading of late. Hasn’t really help the insomnia…….

        I think Syriza might have a stronger hand this time if they are the winner. It would be virtually impossible for the other parties to form a government without the Golden Dawn and the EU is likely to have more kittens over them being in government than Syriza.

      • Agreed. The EU would definitely have kittens over Golden Dawn being involved and having a greater say in Greek politics. I don’t think SYRIZA is bluffing either.

      • The winner has three days to try and form a government, then the second place part gets three days and then the third place party gets three days. It looks like at this stage SYRIZA will come first, then New Democracy coming second.

        Third place is a mixed bag; it could be Golden Dawn, the River (the new centre left), the Communists (Old School) or PASOK (the old centre left).

    • Varoufakis is a first rate economist with many ties to Australia. He could well be finance minister in a Syriza government.

  6. It seems the pathetic ECB plan I’m expecting to be revealed on Friday may well turn out to be brilliantly upstaged by the Greek election.

    Come on Grexit, you know you want to.

    • A Grexit will need to happen at a weekend or else Chaos will occur….. Hang on…… It will be chaotic not matter what but probably want the time to be when the banks are shut.

  7. Grexit will never happen, there will be a quiet deposits in some swiss bank accounts and the politicians will “roll over” to the whims of the EU

    • Never is a very long time. Sooner or later someone will exit, and it will be very interesting when it happens.

      As for Greece; I declare myself incompetent on the topic. It will be interesting to watch.

    • Thanks for this Ortega.

      “Greece did itself a lot of harm by joining the eurozone because the introduction of the euro caused an inflationary credit bubble that stripped the country of its competitiveness. Unemployment rates of around 50 percent among young people and 25 percent of the general population are the terrifying consequences. And the people responsible for that are the politicians both in Greece and Germany.”

      There has been a massive surge of young Greeks coming to Australia over the last 4 years because of this.