QLD Left attacks Comrade Campbell’s coal quango

You know when your plodding through the ideological labyrinth that is Australian politics when this happens to the massive Abbot Point coal project:

The government has offered funds to help build shared-use infrastructure, such as a rail line or airport, from its asset privatisation and lease plan.

The LNP is yet to put a figure on how much it is willing to contribute, but an Indian media report put it at $400 million. Indian company Adani, which is hoping to raise funds to begin work on its Carmichael project, set to be the nation’s biggest coal mine, has said it does not need the government’s infrastructure assistance in order for the project to go ahead, but welcomed it nonetheless.

“So the government is doing the wrong thing by taxpayers by picking a winner and picking losers. It needs to stack up financially, it needs to be commercially viable and the market should decide that, not Campbell Newman,” said [Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk].

Of course, we’re really only splitting hairs over this. Both parties want the project. But it will be markets that decide the matter, and right now it’s not looking good. The project is thought to have a breakeven point around $100 per tonne but we haven’t seen that now for two years and prices are still making new lows, at $61.30 today:

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Moreover, futures are pricing mid $50s before long.

And from Crikey:

Newman’s decision to call a snap poll in the holiday month of January is proving a double-edged sword. LNP strategists hoped it would catch voters when they were “relaxed and comfortable” and not wanting to do anything dramatic like changing the government. But an opposite mood is being detected in the electorate. Annoyed by Newman’s decision to run early, they are just not listening to the LNP’s message, and one voter has told Crikey: “I made up my mind about Newman and the LNP last year. Nothing they say now is going to change my vote.”

Many voters regard Newman’s “snap poll” as a barely disguised “cut-and-run poll”, and they wish the vote were this Saturday and not next Saturday, January 31.

When voters from Cooktown to Cunnamulla are anxious to vote, it is never a good sign for those in power. It usually means the punters have started to oil their cricket bats.

No one doubts that the swing against the LNP is on, but just how big is it going to be in 10 days?

It’s surely impossible for the current QLD politburo to lose from here, deservedly or not:

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Houses and Holes
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Comments

  1. “It’s surely impossible for the current QLD politburo to lose from here, deservedly or not:”

    It is highly improbable that they’ll loose this but here’s hoping that the LNP get two black eyes and learn a salient lesson on how not to treat the QLD electorate.

    • It is highly improbable that they’ll loose this but here’s hoping that the LNP get two black eyes and learn a salient lesson on how not to treat the QLD electorate.

      And even this result will be considered a “mandate” by the LNP to do whatever the hell they want.

  2. You would think it would make more sense to buy existing thermal mines especially around the hunter region with all infastruture already in place sounds like a lot of crap really heaps of under table deals.

  3. The speed with which Newman is dragging Queensland back into the mire of its bad old days is breathtaking, given the ostensibly greater transparency that (should) exists in this day and age. It is almost a moot point how effective the ALP’s alternative leadership would be – it is simply unhealthy for a (quasi) democratic system to let such an instinctively autocratic character such as Newman loose with such a huge majority, and no oversight (via an Upper House or objective media or effective independent corruption commission or judiciary).

    Newman’s proposition to voters is essentially to give a mandate for an autocratic Police State. Unfortunately, the best voters can realistically hope for is for Newman to lose his seat and for the more level heads in the remaining (much reduced) LNP Cabinet to prevail. If they don’t get thrown out this year, they will be decimated in 2018 and deservedly so.

    • Unfortunately, the next cab off the rank is Seeney. And according to my father he is a menace. I don’t disagree with him.

  4. I can see the ALP finishing easily with a 3 in front of seats tally but I can’t see them getting up to 45 to win.

    On the other hand, with a diverse bunch of third party candidates and Queenslanders have been known to go heavily for 3rd parties in the past, it might get to the stage of being a hung parliament if they are really angry.

    The odds I could get the other day were $1.11 for LNP to retain power which I wasn’t willing to place the house deposit on (like I did on the last NSW election where I got a $1.08).

  5. A uniform 11% swing would just about deliver a hung parliament which presumably would mean LNP stays in power with support from independents.

    11% would be an extreme swing in a full State election but not a record. NSW 2011 was more than 16%.

    And given the present toxicity of the LNP brand in Qld I wouldn’t rule it out completely. Optional preferential voting may be the factor that wins LNP a handful of crucial seats due to Greens/ALP high preference exhaustion rates.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/calculator/?mode=overall&overall=11.1&SEQ=custom&REG=custom&retiringmps=true

  6. After much mucking around with the local TAB, they wouldnt take the wager in this jurisdiction, I finally placed a good wager with Centrebet at $1.70 straight bet on big ears Newman being tossed from Ashgrove.and the ALP to win (that seat)
    Alan Jones has been on the radio of a morning “enlightening the populace” of the virtues of the LNP govt. and not holding back. A situation I totally support.
    Big Clive is due to fire up next with money to burn.
    Going to be an interesting tussle.WW

    • Thank goodness Alan Jones is speaking up (even if it does seem to be personally motivated). The Courier Mail is essentially giving Newman a free pass to ride roughshod over the judiciary and the electorate. In a one newspaper state with no Upper House, there needs to be some counter balance coming from ‘mainstream’ voices.

    • I got $2.50 the day after the election was called before the bookies worked out it was real chance.

      • Yes, saw that, and the price has been steadily closing.on the TAB, available to those in SA and the NT it is 1.50.
        After hearing AJ on the radio this morning, and now the coppers are calling him a liar, I really had to go and re open an account with CentreBet. Ladbrokes still have the Ashgrove wager at $2.00.

        I think he is gone for all money. worse it really does look bad for some of the politicians personally. Wait till big Clive fires up.WW

  7. Tassie TomMEMBER

    Queensland is a funny state policitally – there are certainly blue-ribbon Liberal and National (sorry – LNP) seats, but very few blue-ribbon Labor seats.

    That doesn’t mean there aren’t Labor voters – they’re just mixed in with the LNP voters. There aren’t vast tracts of Labor heartland like in North and West Melbourne; Inner-West and Southwest Sydney, and North and Northwest Adelaide. Perth is in a similar situation to Brisbane in this regard.

    What this means is that Labor can lose a lot of seats, but also gain a lot of seats with lower swings than what would happen in the other states.

    This also has federal implications. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor win a few federal seats in WA next election. WA may still be a very Liberal state, but if they are not quite as Liberal as they have been for the last 10 years then this could bring Swan, Hasluck, Stirling and Cowan all into the game.

    • GD agree, that is disgraceful behavior by the LNP
      Trouble is the man has been elected; will the constituents have the courage to boot him out. Most of the reason we have these goon politicians is that the electorate voted with their eyes closed in the past..
      Well I’ll bet that after reading the statements from their super companies their eyes will be wide open this time.
      House prices here are noticeably turning down and a chinese development high rise in Coolangatta opposite the surf club is still mt.
      I think the locals are starting to get the picture but its too late.WW

      • General Disarray

        Yes, good points. I think we’re going to be in for a period of big electoral swings mostly due to the good times coming to an end and people not really understanding why or who to blame.

      • True GD – but it doesn’t help much that the vast majority of our politicians are fuckwits of one type or another…

        I think we need to;
        – force re-preselection at each election
        – raise wages for them all to $350k (to attract s higher calibre and less ideologues)
        – ban political donations
        – implement truly independed icacs every where – all the time …
        .

  8. I’d really prefer the LNP hold on and Queensland voters save their baseball bats for Abbott in 2016.

  9. So is the he decision not to support manufacturing, but to instead support coal, ideological or rational?

    Is is certainly not ideologically consistent …