Macro Morning (US roll)

By Chris Becker

The closely watched US durable goods order printed a new four month low, contracting 3.4% in December and weighing on confidence, sending US stocks down nearly 2% amid some mixed earnings results. The blizzard in NY was a near no show, but the cold weather extended to risk taking, as the Caterpillar earnings results showed the stronger USD is starting to weigh on US corporates.

The S&P500 closed down 28 points or 1.4% on the cash market:

Chart SP500, H4, 2015.01.27 21:45 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

The trend is still weak with an inability to break through overhead resistance on the daily chart at 2067 points indicating that this pause or dip may have longer legs yet.

In Europe, the mood was dour all session as the Germans got a taste of an emboldened vassal state in Greece with the Stoxx 50 down 1.2% while the DAX fell 1.6% and followed the S&P500 in futures trading:

Chart DAX30, H1, 2015.01.27 21:51 UTC, VantageFX Pty Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

The DAX is sitting on tentative hourly support yet the four hourly chart is not so bearish with the 10400 support line the real break to watch. SPI futures are pointing to a 1% plus loss on the open of the ASX200 this morning, with mining stocks to be hit hard.

The commodity complex was mixed with copper slashed by 3% on the LME, while oil rose over 2%, WTI cannot get above the $46USD per barrel barrier, as highlighted in the chart below:

cl-oil-h1-vantagefx-pty-ltd

There is a tentative bullish double bottom forming on the daily/4 hourly chart but unless oil can really crack through, its just range trading from here.

Gold was up a little over 1% to be back above $1300USD per ounce again but is still consolidating in its box before a breakout to higher levels, so nothing to get excited up just yet.

In currency land, USD finally had a breather as the post Greek election panic run reversed slightly overnight. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still highly elevated but taking a breather:

dxy4

Euro has continued to rally post Greek election, now up nearly 300 pips to just below 1.14:

eurusd-h1-vantagefx-pty-ltd

Pound is following the euro and has regained its mojo:

gbpusd-h1-vantagefx-pty-ltd

Yen however continues to range trade as I expected, staying within its four hourly “box” and also continue to distribute over the long term:

usdjpy-h4-vantagefx-pty-ltd

And not much happening with the Aussie dollar which is very slowly trying to climb its way back above 80 cents, currently at 79.35 and positioning itself for today’s CPI result.

Data today starts off slow with ANZ weekly confidence and Westpac leading index prints before the very closely watched Aussie CPI print mid morning. Not much in Europe but first thing tomorrow morning will see the RBNZ make their January rate decision.

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