How low will the Australian dollar go?

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Brace for this post. How low will the Australian dollar go? There are limitless factors as always in forex forecasting but the MB five drivers model of value is as solid a method as any to make your punt. Those five drivers are:

  • interest rate differentials;
  • global and Australian growth (more recently this has become more nuanced for the Aussie to be more about Chinese growth);
  • investor sentiment and technicals; and
  • the US dollar

There’s is not much point in going through each in detail for a long range forecast, which is just throwing darts. I’ll just give you my view straight up.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.