The most watched trendline ever?

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looking ahead

by Chris Becker

You may well think that technical analysis is up there in terms of whackery as say, tea leaf reading or astrology or modern economic dogma. But it seems every analyst in the world – and that includes pretty much all asset management funds – are watching the 2009-2014 trendline on US stocks:

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Theres a couple of interesting things, and some problems, with this analysis. First of all, the notion that the small stock and tech heavy indices, the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ respectively, usually lead the direction of the major bourses is not very robust, at least when you compare the last major bull market:

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