Daily iron ore price update (steel angst)

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The only price today is the 12 month swap in Singapore, which rose 57 cents to 83.87, creating a small contango with spot. All other markets were closed:

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Markets are still trying to bottom. We may see some stability or minor rebound this week as panic eases (weekends can do that). But the next test is this coming weekend with the release the next round of Chinese growth and credit data. I expect it to be weakish and beyond the immediate horizon see no reason for any sustained iron ore rebound. The reason is steel. From Platts:

“I feel any slight rebound would mark some sparks of brightness before the darkness comes,” a procurement source for a Hebei-based mill said. “Steel sales are doing really badly now and there’s little hope for any improvement through September and October, though these are traditional months for a steel boom.”

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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