Why unemployment is going to get worse (members)

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Press reactions to last week’s “shocking” unemployment number continue today and, as usual, are far behind the curve. Crikey’s Glenn Dyer is farthest to the rear with this effort:

But all this media posturing and opining ignored a couple of salient points — the most important being that July’s fall was the fourth monthly fall in new jobs in the past year — and the smallest. There were around 5300 jobs lost in July 2013 (and a further 8600 in August of that year). Other down months were December 2013, with around 24,400 lost and May this year, with 4800 jobs lost.

In fact, the 300 jobs estimated to have been lost was the smallest loss since the start of 2011 — out of a total of 14 months of job losses (in the 42 months, or a third). It is in fact possible the 300 lost jobs will be revised away in coming months (or increased). These are estimates, not hard and fast figures.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.