“Out of control” Ebola rages

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From the FT:

The death toll from the outbreak of Ebola virus in west Africa has climbed to 826, nearly double the number of fatalities of the previous worst-ever epidemic, according to figures released by the World Health Organisation.

The update suggests the outbreak is spinning out of control, with more than 50 deaths reported in three days from 28-30 July, as the spread of the virus outpaces efforts to contain it in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

 “The surge in the number of new cases . . . calls for concentrated efforts by all to address the identified problems such as health facility transmission and effective contact tracing,” the WHO said.

The rapid increase in the death toll comes after the three west African nations announced over the weekend extra measures to combat the outbreak, including calling in the army to enforce quarantines in several villages.

In a statement the trio said the new measures would focus on the “cross-border regions that have more than 70 per cent [of the cases] of the epidemic”. They added that the “border areas will be isolated by policy and the military”.

…Margaret Chan, WHO director-general, warned that “if the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences can be catastrophic in terms of lost lives, but also severe socio-economic disruption and a high risk of spread to other countries”.

She added: “This outbreak is moving faster than our efforts to control it.”

And the latest data:

Diseased_Ebola_2014
Date of report Total Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Other countries
cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths
1 Aug 2014 1603 887 485 358 468 255 646 273 4 1
30 Jul 2014 1440 826 472 346 391 227 574 252 3 1
27 Jul 2014 1323 729 460 339 329 156 533 233 1 1
23 Jul 2014 1201 672 427 319 249 129 525 224
20 Jul 2014 1093 660 415 314 224 127 454 219
18 Jul 2014 1048 632 410 310 196 116 442 206
15 Jul 2014 964 603 406 304 172 105 386 194
10 Jul 2014 888 539 409 309 142 88 337 142
8 Jul 2014 844 518 408 307 131 84 305 127
2 Jul 2014 759 467 413 303 107 65 239 99
24 Jun 2014 599 338 390 270 51 34 158 34
18 Jun 2014 528 337 398 264 33 24 97 49
10 Jun 2014 474 252 372 236 13 9 89 7
5 Jun 2014 438 231 344 215 13 9 81 7
2 Jun 2014 354 208 291 193 13 9 50 6
27 May 2014 309 200 281 186 12 9 16 5
23 May 2014 270 181 258 174 12 9
14 May 2014 245 164 233 157 12 9
5 May 2014 243 162 231 155 12 9
30 Apr 2014 233 153 221 146 12 9
23 Apr 2014 220 143 208 136 12 9
21 Apr 2014 215 136 203 129 12 9
17 Apr 2014 209 129 197 122 12 9
10 Apr 2014 169 108 157 101 12 9
7 Apr 2014 163 102 151 95 12 7
2 Apr 2014 135 88 127 83 8 5
1 Apr 2014 130 82 122 80 8 2
31 Mar 2014 114 70 112 70 2 0
27 Mar 2014 103 66 103 66
26 Mar 2014 86 60 86 60
25 Mar 2014 86 59 86 59
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It’s a matter of time before these nations are shut.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.