June quarter shipments meet guidance Pt Hedland users (namely BHP, FMG, AGO, and MIN) in aggregate provided implied shipping guidance of 100mt for the June quarter. Despite the softer June print, the quarter total of 104.5mt suggests that on face value all producers should meet or slightly exceed guidance.
While iron ore shipments are likely to deliver a small beat against guidance, in our view, it is unlikely to be sufficient to offset the c.20% fall in the 62% Fe benchmark price since March. Combined with rising grade discounts and potential provisional pricing adjustments, we suspect the market is likely to be disappointed by the upcoming quarterly results.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
