All that is needed now is for Iron Ore to break through $97 a tonne and close there for a day and traders will dive in, propelling the price higher.
But it is close as a convergence of fundamentals (closing of low yielding Chinese mines) and technicals (a reverse head and shoulder pattern) combine to suggest the chances of a break higher are the strongest they have been in months.
Greg is an experienced trader and that chart does looks good. However, the evidence that Chinese mines are closing, or closing fast enough, is still thin and fundamentals aren’t great either with Chinese property still sliding, even if traders can take a market by the scruff of the neck.
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Even if it breaks out I still struggle to see triggers for further upside momentum. Dalian futures were stable today.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
