It seems leaving the country has helped Prime Minister Tony Abbott rebound in the polls. From Newspoll, the Coalition clawed back one point on two-party preferred:
It is more stark at Roy Morgan:
If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily (55.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted last weekend – June 14/15, 2014.
This is a much improved performance for the Government after the L-NP crashed to 39.5% cf. ALP 60.5% – its lowest point since last year’s Federal Election – following leadership speculation involving former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull during the week leading up to June 7/8, 2014. This week’s swing to the Government comes after Prime Minister Tony Abbott met world leaders and crisis erupted in Iraq last week.
These two Morgan Polls on voting intention were conducted separately over the last two weekends (June 7/8, 2014 and June 14/15, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,068 Australian electors aged 18+. This week the ALP primary vote is at 38% (unchanged from the last released Morgan Poll a fortnight ago) whilst the L-NP primary vote is 36.5% (up 1.5%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (up 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5.5% (down 2%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (down 0.5%).
Support for the Palmer United Party this week is highest in the States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (11%), Tasmania (7%) and Western Australia (7%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in Victoria (4%), New South Wales (4%) and South Australia (3.5%).
And on my own chart of TPP performance for first term PMs, Tony Abbott has managed to climb back above Julia Gillard but is still tracking her nicely:
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
