RP Data weekly Australian house price update

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ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 20 20.55

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 12 June 2014, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, fell by 0.32%. It was the fifth consecutive week of falls (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_2881 Jun. 12 16.11

Values fell in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, but rose in the other major capitals (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_2882 Jun. 12 16.11

Values are now down 0.32% so far in June, driven by a big fall in Melbourne and a smaller fall in Sydney, partly offset by rises in the other major capitals (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_2883 Jun. 12 16.13
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Values are now up by only 1.56% so far in 2014, driven by solid gains in Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide, with Melbourne and Perth values under water:

ScreenHunter_2884 Jun. 12 16.14

Over the past 12 months, home values have risen by 10.39% at the 5-city level, led by Sydney and Melbourne (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_2885 Jun. 12 16.16

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend has stalled, with weakness particularly evident in Melbourne and Sydney (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_2886 Jun. 12 16.17
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Values are now up 5.2% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney, with Perth values also up, but Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_2887 Jun. 12 16.18

However, major capital home values have now gained 13.7% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_2888 Jun. 12 16.19

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.