Macro Morning


By Chris Becker

There was good news all round for the US economy last night which sent some volatility through stock markets, but not much across the pond or indeed in the commodity complex.

The New York Fed Empire survey showed improved conditions while industrial production for May ramped up above expectations. This will give the Fed more ammo in its tapering/rising rates debate which we’ll hear about in the next 24 hours as the FOMC meeting continues.

It wasn’t a spectacular night on futures markets to be honest – some intraday moves were interesting, but major trends are still in place or stalled. Here’s a quick snapshot:

Gold reversed at the London open losing $17USD an ounce, as USD also weakened against the majors, with sterling (GBPUSD) stalled just below 1.70, alongside Kiwi and the Aussie just on the 94 handle.


Euro (EURUSD) was bid after a London session whipsaw, possibly on the IMF downgrade to US growth but it can’t seem to breakout above the 1.36 handle and may rollover again tonight EZ sentiment numbers show a drop (i.e cue more stimulus) as it remains firmly in a daily downtrend:


Staying in Europe, stocks were flat as a pancake there, but on the NY open the S&P500 rallied and finished just below its four day low – is buy the dip back?


WTI oil finished down for the session, just above its four day low as some heat comes out of the speculative rise on the Iraqi/Ukraine dual crisis.


The US bond market saw some bids on the long end of the curve with 10 year Treasury yields falling just below 2.6%, 30 years even further falls down below 3.4% – the real news in bonds were Japans paralysed bond market and the US ruling on Argentinian sovereign bonds that looks headed for defaults/re-structures. More on that later today.

Events today in the Asian session that we will cover include:

  • ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index
  • RBA Releases Minutes of June Policy Meeting
  • Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales for May

Later tonight the news flow is quite heavy with UK CPI releases set to put a rocket under sterling if it prints on the upside followed by Eurozone sentiment, but then US CPI for May also to be released.


  1. “There was good news all round for the US economy last night which sent some volatility through stock markets, but not much across the pond or indeed in the commodity complex.”
    —Chris Becker

    There has been no good news for the US economy for many years.

    Just one example of the whole country drowning in debt: Chicago .
    In 2004 the city of Chicago’s Pension Liability was funded 70%.
    The most recent figures (2012) show that because of really low interest rates the Pension Liability was funded 33%, and with bond rates getting lower this trend will just get worse, and they’ll probably try to fund the shortfall with even more debt.

    A nation can’t grow its way out of debt if growth requires ever increasing amounts of borrowing.

    Chris Becker, there is no good news for the US economy.

    Stephen Nordstrom.

      • Well Chris, the animation is certainly more expressive than your prose… perhaps you should stick with acting and give journalism a miss.

      • Steve, first of all – grow a backbone.

        2nd – you responded to my first line which linked 2 economic releases from LAST NIGHT that then moved the market WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS with a completely different contextual long term view of the US economy focusing on ONE ELEMENT.

        Im reporting on what happened on macro markets – moreover, the perception markets have to “good economy” or no.

        The releases showed positive improvement in those aspects of the economy for THOSE periods of time.

        If you want to talk long term macro consequences of the deleterious state of the US economy, talk about it somewhere else or with some bloody context.

        The gif put in a few seconds what I’m trying to say now – my preferred response when thick headed conspiracy nutters or permabulls or permabears want to take anything said to fit their own twisted narrative.

        Good evening.

      • “Steve, first of all – grow a backbone.

        —Chris Becker

        Yeah Chris… Lost that in the early days of January 1970 when with five others I was shipwrecked in the Bay of Storms at the age of 18.
        Life does that.