Immigration continues to moderate

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of April, which registered another significant fall in net long-term and permanent migration into Australia.

In the year to April 2014, there were 760,930 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia – down from the record 792,500 arrivals set in the year to January 2013 – partly offset by 382,340 permanent and long-term departures from Australia (see next chart).

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There were 378,590 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to April 2014, down from 385,360 net arrivals in the year to March 2014, but still representing a 33% increase from the January 2011 trough and well over double the long-run average of 153,697 (see next chart).

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Clearly, overall net long-term migration into Australia has peaked. Moreover, permanent migration is also softening. In the year to April 2014, permanent arrivals fell by 4% to 145,390, whereas permanent departures fell by a more moderate 3% to 87,580 (see next chart).

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Taken together, net permanent arrivals into Australia fell by 5% over the year and are tracking 11% below the long-run average; although a significant proportion of these will obviously go on to become permanent residents down the track (see next chart).

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.