Saul Eslake dumps rate cut call

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Now it’s getting lonely, from Saul Eslake today:

We do not think the case for a rate cut has been dealt a decisive blow, rather it has been chipped away at by recent more positive data. We still forecast below trend growth and a rising unemployment rate,” he said in a report. “But overall activity has seemingly stabilised, particularly in the labour market to our mind removing the threat of a further cuts. But we also are cognisant that the decline in the mining investment cycle presents significant downside risks late in 2014 and 2015. As such we expect the RBA to hold policy rates unchanged for an extended period throughout 2015 and gradual rates hikes beginning in the first quarter 2016.

How long can Tim Toohey and Steve Walters hold out? It’s me against the world!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.