Parabolic blowoff in Sydney housing speculation

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By Leith van Onselen

Today’s Lending Finance data for March, released by the ABS, continues to show that investors are hog wild for Sydney housing.

As shown below, the value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) continues to rocket, with Melbourne – the second hottest market – also experiencing strong growth:

ScreenHunter_2471 May. 16 12.22
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According to the ABS, investor finance commitments in New South Wales in February were 48% higher than March 2013. New South Wales investor loans were also up by 43% in rolling annual terms in the year to March 2014, well above the national average increase of 29%.

Further, as at March 2014, investors accounted for a record 53.1% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales, which was well above the experience of the other major capitals. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) share of investor mortgages also rose to 45.1%, which was also a record share for that state:

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Sydney continues to be a speculator’s market writ large, with Melbourne a distant second.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.