Goldman: Prepare for Chinese property bust

Goldman Sachs is pulling no punches today and it’s Australia that’s on the end of them:

“Two-year property downcycle imminent; negative implications for banking/commodity/machinery”

…With demand poised to slow given a tepid economic backdrop, weaker household affordability, rising mortgage rates and developer cash flow weakness, we believe current construction capacity of the domestic property industry may be excessive. We estimate an inventory adjustment cycle of two years for developers, driving 10%-15% price cuts in most cities with 15% volume contraction from 2013 levels in 2014E-15E. We also expect M&A activities to take place actively, favoring developers with strong balance sheet and cash flow discipline.

….Mortgage key to avoid prolonged downturn: We believe lower mortgage downpayment/rates, RRR cuts, and developers’ price cuts should help improve affordability and allow transaction volumes to hold at a level sufficient for the industry to restore supply-demand balance by end-2015E.

…Policy delay poses significant downside risks: We believe China has the flexibility (in terms of potential policies, e.g. RRR cut, mortgage easing, removal of L/D ratio, etc.) to prevent a severe property downturn. However, we are concerned about the timing of their implementation, if any, as possible delays could lead to further slowdown in the property sector and a fall in FAI.

“Time to adopt a defensive stance”…Near-term, we prefer defensive stocks in the property/banking/commodity/machinery sectors, and would closely watch for downside/upside risks especially pertaining to policy changes.

And here is a Q&A:

Q. How long will the housing market downturn be for this time?

A: We expect a two-year downturn to restore supply-demand balance. Given developers’ weak balance sheet as discussed in Q3 of this report and “Deteriorating balance sheet to impact property prices in 2Q14E” dated May 5, 2014, we believe developers would need to cut their new starts and construction capex more aggressively in order to lower their leverage and reduce their interest expenses. In the first four months of this year, new starts have already fallen 22% yoy and we expect this trend to continue. By assuming different level of cuts of new starts in cities with different level of oversupply issues for the 200+ cities we analyzed earlier, we conclude that property new starts would need to be about 20%+ lower than 2013 levels during 2014E-15E. We therefore translate it into 17%/14% yoy decline in new starts for 2014E/15E. This would in turn translate into about 5% and 14% yoy decline in GFA under construction for these two years. With our expectation that GFA sold would decline by 15% yoy in 2014 and stay yoy flat in 2015, we estimate the inventory ratio would be restored to end-2010 level of 3X by end-2015E, which we believe should reduce price decline risks. We also expect a further decline in inventory ratio to 2.4X (average level since 1996) by end-2016E assuming GFA sold/new starts are similar to 2015E levels but a further 5% drop in GFA under development in 2016E.

GS China downturn

Q: What is the current housing demand/supply situation in China versus its history?

A: We have noticed a significant increase in land sales during 2010-2013, almost doubling the average level during 2007-2009. As an important fiscal revenue source to support local governments’ fixed asset investment (FAI) post the 2008 global financial crisis, land sales in China have significantly increased since 2010, with average land area sold in 2010-2013 almost doubling the average level in 2007-2009 (see Exhibit 2).

Goldman Ex 2

By adding up the total residential land sold during 2011-2013 in each of the 200+ cities, and dividing this by the total population in each city, we estimate the potential living space per capita increase for each of these cities. Our analysis suggests about half of these 200+ cities could see potential oversupply of properties and construction activities would need to be cut (with different magnitudes) in the coming years.

Goldman Ex 3

In Exhibit 5 below, we summarize the key drivers for China’s housing demand and our estimated trend in the coming years vs. past years (since 2010). We expect policy drivers to mostly move in a favorable direction, but cyclical and half of the structural drivers would either be in a negative or weakening trend over the next decade.

China housing demand

Q: When did the government start to provide support to the housing market in previous downturns?

A: With further deterioration of the housing market in the coming months, we expect the government to provide policy support to prevent prolonged housing downturn that could trigger a vicious cycle on the economy.

The exact timing of such support is difficult to predict, but we summarize below the indicators that have triggered government support for the industry during previous cycles:

  • Decline in quarterly property sales volume yoy (10%-20% yoy decline);
  • Decrease in property prices mom in most cities (about 50 out of 70); and
  • Land transaction premium over government base land price approaching zero.

We believe poor sales volume/sell-through ratio would lead directly to slow land acquisition and possible price cuts.

GS China downturn 2

Residential construction represented roughly one quarter of China’s 20% fixed asset investment growth in 2013.  Goldman’s 5% and 14% falls in construction floor space in 2014 and 2015 would thus take around 5-6% off fixed asset investment growth across those two years. It is already at 17.6% so we’re talking about a fall to 11-12% year on year growth (on the back of an envelope). That’s far ahead of any local forecast but is consistent with a swift rebalancing of Chinese growth and probable fall to about 6% GDP if spillovers are contained (which is questionable).

Moreover, this is the most steel intensive component of Chinese growth absorbing up to half of all steel output.

Goldman also raised its iron ore surplus forecast yesterday for 2015 to 175 from 145 million tonnes on diminishing Chinese growth prospects. It is still forecasting an$80 iron ore price but if it proves to be right about Chinese property then I’ll add that steel output growth will cease next year and  a sub-$80 iron ore price for long periods is probable, as well as cut backs in iron ore production hitting volume growth.

That raises the clear and present risk of an echo housing bust and recession in Australia.

Comments

  1. Another reason to fear a Chinese housing crash: 14% of China’s urban jobs are in real estate – Quartz

    http://qz.com/210436/another-reason-to-fear-a-chinese-housing-crash-14-of-chinas-urban-jobs-are-in-real-estate/

    … noting the build rates per 1,000 population per annum … (and too ,,, house prices to incomes) …

    Vanke Vice Chairman’s private comments about the Chinese residential property market recorded, posted online | The Sinocism China Newsletter

    https://sinocism.com/?p=10838

    … which far exceed those of Ireland and Spain at their peaks …

    China: Big Bubble Trouble | Hugh Pavletich | Scoop News

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1401/S00034/china-big-bubble-trouble.htm

  2. It is a great shame New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, in “kicking the can down the road”, failed to deal with the housing bubble out of the 2008 election … as promised …

    Housing: Mr Key – Get on the Programme | Scoop News

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1212/S00041/housing-mr-key-get-on-the-programme.htm

    … and the Housing Industry Association (HIA) of Australia derailed the issue in the lead-up to the 2007 Australian Federal election …

    The Need For Clarity … Hugh Pavletich communication to HIA 2007

    http://www.demographia.com/p-hia.pdf

    Where is the accountability ?

    • Keep going, Hugh! New Zealanders are finally starting to read ‘your’ stuff, and are shuffling in their seats. As I mentioned to Peter Fraser on here a few weeks back, more and more people who previously had me consigned to the luny bin of economic thought are staring to reappraise my opinion. At the weekend, a call from family in Sydney ” So, what do you think is going to happens to property market here?”. No one who knows me would be surprised by my answer….

      • Trouble is, it is far too late.

        Ireland median multiples from the Demographia Reports:

        2007:
        Cork 4.7
        Dublin City/County 5.4
        Dublin Exurbs 5.0
        Galway 4.6
        Limerick 3.5
        Waterford 4.1

        2008:
        Cork 5.4
        Dublin 6.0
        Galway 5.6
        Limerick 4.3
        Waterford 4.9

        2009:
        Cork 3.6
        Dublin 4.7
        Galway 3.2
        Limerick 4.2
        Waterford 3.7

        Compare those 2008 peaks with Auckland and other NZ cities…….

        Timing is the hard thing to predict. A prediction of “carnage” – when the time comes – is not a difficult prediction at all.

        And see this comment I made about Jesse Colombo’s comments in the National Business Review:

        http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/nz-government-takes-backwards-step-on-housing/#comment-364192

      • Of course I agree with you, Phil, but I have to console myself with ‘it’s only far too late if we still do nothing’. The realist Huntaways are out, and have to be kept working until the sheep are into a safer paddock. Last time, in 08, they got distracted by other events, and the result is obvious. This time, the likes of Hugh and you, have to keep barking until the gate is securely shut. Graeme’ Heading Dog’ Wheeler must keep nipping that their mortgage rate heels if there is the slightest resistance to the move that is so necessary. Because unless we move them, the flock is going to die….Then…it is far too late.

      • The National government will try to keep the property party going by playing the immigration card whilst looking rosy in the eye of voters by pushing the housing supply scenario. They’re going for a dollar each way.

  3. There is an embarasse du riches of warnings re China now. No-one can say we weren’t warned.As for the impact on Australia:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgruber/2014/01/05/betting-against-china-in-2014/

    “5 Ways To Profit From A China Downturn In 2014″

    I particularly like:

    Suggestion 1: Short Australian Banks, esp CBA

    Suggestion 4: Short Fortescue Metals

    Suggestion 5: Short the Australian Dollar

    Three out of five of that Forbes columnists ideas relate to fallout in Australia…….!

    Is there a way to short Aussie property and/or mortgages? He didn’t include this, so probably there isn’t one.

    • J BauerMEMBER

      But when to do it? Anyone who shorted CBA recently would be feeling the pain.

      • thomickersMEMBER

        Fortescue and aud.

        Followed by bank and genworth

        Then followed by listed fund managers (performance fee decline) then listed aged care

      • intertubernet

        This is what makes me leery of putting in shorts:

        “We believe China has the flexibility (in terms of potential policies, e.g. RRR cut, mortgage easing, removal of L/D ratio, etc.) to prevent a severe property downturn.”

      • “But when to do it?”

        That’s always the question, isn’t it?

        A number of people picked that there was going to be a major US housing downturn but only a few were able to successfully pick the timing or hold on long enough to make serious money.

        I thought we were gone during the GFC and I’ll now happily admit I have no idea when a crash will hit us (though I remain convinced that one will).

      • Intertubernet … the CCP will have its work cut out endeavoring to prop up itself and its SOEs, without attempting to “save” the property and private sectors.

        Guess who the elites are going to attempt to look after first ?

        In any event, the bubble pricing of the housing is just so stretched … particularly in relation to incomes. This in turn exacerbates wage / general inflation hampering the export sector. The Authorities will be in no hurry to encourage re-shoring to the United States.

        The recent Country Competitiveness Report by the Boston Consulting Group is worth a close read. China / Asia do not look pretty at all.

      • James RossMEMBER

        AB
        You are quite right. I expected 2008 to be the turning point, when the party and music stopped and everybody went home. However it was just the interval and with CBanks worldwide providing the late night shots, the party really got going.It will end but who knows when!!

  4. To me, the report comes off as a little desperate, begging even, for Chinese stimulus.

    Wasn’t the Vampire Squid one of the biggest lenders of last resort to FMG the last time IO prices went below $100?

    • intertubernet

      I believe so, Mav.

      And you’re right about the tone too.

      Question is, will they get the stimulus? This can has been kicked so many times I have forgotten what the world sounds like without the cursed rattle of it bouncing along the road…

  5. Could there really be a better time to slap down the poor and middle class? You know the ones that spend most of their disposable income which supports businesses and job creation? Kudos Abbott government! Now, you just have to figure out a way to blame Labor for China’s problems. I’m sure it’s not beyond Abbott and co to place all the world’s ills firmly on Labor and the Greens.

    • Do they? Or do they “spend most of their disposable income” on property speculation, one way or another?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Well sure everyone does that, either through rent or mortgage and with stagnant/falling wages they’ll spend more of it on that. Should have bought AGBs.

      • “Should have bought AGBs.”

        I did tell you that a while back…you weren’t the only one that laughed at me.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @AB you did, b_b did also – I’ll try and play genworth cds if I can get someone in London who trades markit and won’t charge half the bps

      • Janet … you are so right.

        Most supported the bubble ponzi … even taking their own children to the cleaners … in making unnecessary “donations” to Banks with grossly excessive mortgages.

        Easy bubble wealth has great appeal to losers … and their loser politicians.

        Now they can wear the consequences.

      • +1. Also most money is spent on superflous businesses and on our grow and hope economy.

        More shopping malls, more liquor stores, often manned by superflous immigrants who are just there to fill the $600k 2 bed units. Absolutely nothing in the way of businesses that would set us up for the future.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @Bluebird: Absolutely nothing in the way of businesses that would set us up for the future

        So like a National Broadband Network? How the hell are you road crumbs going to achieve “setting up for the future” idiot?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @Bluebird Don’t blame me that Labor was so incompetent otherwise

        No but I do blame you for Fiberal incompetence on this, because you’re always singing their – thoroughly undeserved – praises.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @Bluebird I’m not praising them. I just hate the other side more

        Well you say that…

        The only people in Australia who want to do something about property values are 44% of Liberal voters

        Because otherwise I’m right there with you on that — I despise them all!

      • “The only people in Australia who want to do something about property values are 44% of Liberal voters”

        Ridiculous statement. You’re in denial. What makes it even more pathetic is you just lived through 6 years of Labor.

        Abbott will almost certainly put more downward pressure on house prices than Labor with it’s wanton spending and can kicking. If not at least they will give a more meritocratic path rather than the “left’s” ‘herp derp just tax everyone on $100k and give it to the bogans and the ferals’.

        You think the March in May protesters don’t have ips? Idiot.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @Bluebird
        Ridiculous statement. You’re in denial. What makes it even more pathetic is you just lived through 6 years of Labor.

        That was your statement you lunatic! And yes I’d rather not live through another day of Labor but past 180 odd of Fiberal have been as disappointing…

        If not at least they will give a more meritocratic path rather than the “left’s” ‘herp derp just tax everyone on $100k and give it to the bogans and the ferals’.

        You absolute lunatic! Haven’t you notice Fiberals just upped the tax on $180k?!?!?! And who are they giving it to? Chocolatiers and Workers comp for women “injured” on-the-job…

      • Well you lost me I don’t exactly know what you’re on about.

        I’m significantly enjoying the Libs. They’re showing nothing but contempt towards a bunch of people who have shown nothing but contempt and self entitlement towards Australians for decades. A bunch of faux communist scum with ips.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        A bunch of faux communist scum with ips

        As opposed to a bunch of proto-fascist scum with ips?

        *cough* Joe Hockey *cough*

      • @flyingfox

        I believe time honoured tradition now is to have a scrap on the street.

      • So called fascists don’t hate you if you’re successful and want to tax you to death.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @Bluebird So called fascists don’t hate you if you’re successful and want to tax you to death.

        Yes they do!! Especially if you’re competition. Guess what? I’m competition.

        EDIT: And I keep telling you they just upped the bloody tax!

      • Bah, real fascists don’t hate people who are successful. They love them!

        They just kill them and take their money 😛

      • Yes they do!! Especially if you’re competition. Guess what? I’m competition.

        Is that IT 457s you’re talking about? Yeah I remember how the Labor government cracked down, on itself before the last election. Hypocrite bastards.

        True dat, peeps don’t like competition. Like them lefties want to maintain their stranglehold on unis and don’t want any other tertiary educational institutions arising that have a priority on teaching rather than being a faux commie feral 101.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        rue dat, peeps don’t like competition. Like them lefties want to maintain their stranglehold on unis and don’t want any other tertiary educational institutions arising that have a priority on teaching rather than being a faux commie feral 101.

        No argument there I never turned up to collect either degree, don’t have them hanging on the wall, have never seen them in my life and have never had to show them to anyone. Just talking to me people work out what I do and don’t know.

        Go coursera/Khan academy

      • Well yeah if I had my time again I’d do it online probably. Uni isn’t much fun being surrounded by a bunch of nerds.

        The arts types are also pissed because they have the most fun.

        F#ck em. Destroy them. Chardonnay socialism is evil. If you’re going to be left, BE left. Don’t just cherry pick when and where it suits you. If you don’t have on your agenda, negative gearing, opening up the land, the upsides and downsides of mass immigration, you are NOT left.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        It’s hard to take anyone seriously who blames everything they hate on “the left” (even things that aren’t “left” at all, like zillions of 457 visas) whilst pining for a textbook “lefty” policy like the NBN.

      • I certainly don’t want you taking me seriously “dr” smithy. I certainly don’t take your ilk seriously. Other that in the sense that it’s gob smacking that you lot exist in such numbers and that you think of yourselves as intelligent.

        You couldn’t even win the last election with a Ferrari. But yet it’s all Murdoch’s fault. What a joke.

        But hey you’ve got the numbers now that Abbott has hit them in the hip pocket. That’s pretty much the same as bribery isn’t it?

  6. China will take a property correction in it’s stride. It’s overdue really.

    Wages for migrant workers have risen 14% and nationally 9%.

    New supply will reduce once this short term oversupply has been absorbed into the market.

    China is a big place.

    • PF,
      I think you might be underestimating the adjustment China will have to go through to re-balance it’s economy away from fixed asset investment. Maybe it’s not now, maybe they can kick the can (I believe they can and will, but eventually they run out of any sensible additional fixed asset investment opportunities).

      Googling:chinese fixed asset boom
      shows that the end to the FA boom has been called prematurely just about every year since 2009 but it also provides references that show how big and sustained it has been compared to other Asian countries that industrialised.

      Timing is the hard part. As always, it will likely go on until it just can”t.

  7. RutherfordMEMBER

    So Peter,

    If China can take a property correction in its stride, will it have any here?

    Can we also take it in our stride?

    • There is still plenty of construction required in China, but a construction slowdown will affect our iron ore trade during the slowdown period, which will boost the rest of our economy as our dollar falls.

      Unfortunately I doubt that the slowdown in China will be long enough to impact our dollar as much as I would like.

      • Yes I would agree with his estimate of around 2020. that is about where others I talk to have estimated – the most optimistic is 2022.

        This year is 2014.

      • Is Peter Fraser the new 3d1k?

        Your comments today smack of desperation. Are you getting worried Peter?

      • No not at all Lorax, I just don’t swallow BS as easily as others.
        I would like the iron ore trade to taper off to allow our other sectors to regain some lost ground, but I’m a realist.

      • Yes. Best we don’t look into why China is slowing down, or indeed why it was doing well at all. Please all look away.

        Worlds largest ever government stimulus.

        Of course – that’s going to happen again – absolutely. Especially with the lose credit over there.

        And who would have thought that empty buildings, empty cities across the entire country, including tier one cities is a “temporary” situation because China needs to house a billion people – since they were all living in tents before and they are all desperate to leave their family homes and live permanently in dog boxes, removed from family, the land and without jobs. Yup – that’s the migrant worker right there. I mean it could never be that part of the insane glut is not merely prices – but lifestyle as well ?

        All of my friends born and bred in Australia have also decided that living cheaply in the leafy suburbs in a 3 bedroom is for idiots, when you can hock yourself to the eye balls and buy a shoddy dog box in the CBD, a perfect place for family and kids – just like the Chinese.

        Oooh, and I really love that point about how a declining dollar is going to boost our exports in ? Manufacturing ? I mean all we have to do is re-hire all the staff we fired, rebuild the factories and get the machinery back and rebuild the entire sector – apparently it only takes a week or two and since no one else in cheaper countries took up the slack we wont have any competition – SWEET.

        Well thought out there Peter – it’s great to have someone see the whole orchard for the cherries.

      • flyingfoxMEMBER

        @PF The 2020 number is for urbanization not construction. Many observers already point to a 3-5 yr oversupply that is present or just about to come online i.e 3-5 yrs of urbanisation at current rates without construction.

        There are many other factors that come into this such as demographics as time goes by.

        Whatever happens, it will definitely not be business as usual. Not by any means.

      • @ ff – you think that the oversupply is nationwide, a constant? Affecting Tier 1,2,and 3 cities.

        Lev – thanks for the melodrama – very entertaining.

      • flyingfoxMEMBER

        @PF I didn’t say it is constant. Just what seems to be the developing consensus. I have been trying to get the numbers myself but without much luck. To me the 2.5 to 3 y supply aggregate sounds plausible.

        Therefore basically tier 3 cities would ground to a halt in terms of construction. tier 2 would be significantly reduced and tier 1 would probably go on as is or maybe 10% reduction.

        Still not business as usual Peter.

      • I would like the iron ore trade to taper off to allow our other sectors to regain some lost ground

        Other sectors? what other sectors? We are a houses and holes economy. And it looks like both these sectors will go down if China [email protected] on FAI.

      • Hi PF,

        With the closure of the car industry and it’s flow on effects and our lack of other major manufacturing, I doubt that a fall in the AUD can help much.

        I expect the benefits to be largely offset by the costs including:
        * increased oil/fuel prices which are, given inelasticity of demand, like an external tax on the domestic economy and in particular in our competitiveness in food and minerals
        * increased inflation eroding real wages and reducing demand which then flows through the retail industry and eventually landlords and construction.

        Perhaps those with better/easier access to statistics and models can tell us whether there is some post 2016 modelling of the effects of a fall in the AUD on the Australian economy, wages, unemployment and standard of living.

  8. Japan had the mother of all property busts. It didn’t signal the death of construction. In some ways, the bust stimulated huge investment in public infrastructure. Furthermore, residential construction has not “disappeared”; the value equation is probably the best it’s ever been.

    I’m surprised the media and hucksters are not hustling the same story.

    • An huge investment in public infrastructure ?

      Really ? Can we see these figures.

      Further the lost decade – ended a decade and a half ago – not surprised people are building again.

    • And the summary concludes that :

      “we find that investment multipliers were higher than for public consumption, although they were relatively low and declining over time. The paper also finds that the effectiveness of economic infrastructure investment, implemented mainly by the central government, is lower than that of social investment mostly undertaken by local governments.”

      Soooo……there’s that.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        It suffered the mother of all economic busts

        Or….

        ….It suffered the mother of all demographic busts…

      • No one is denying that they had a bubble economy surrounding their meteoric rise – what we are wondering is why you are putting up a graph of the Nikkei to illustrate their construction boom ?

        I have a picture of an elephant sitting in my room – can I post that ?

      • Oh – and one more thing – the Japanese investment, vis-a-vis China has already happened in China – it was the biggest stimulus package of any nation, ever – including anything from Japan, ….ever.

        That is the phase we are getting over – not to be repeated.

      • flyingfoxMEMBER

        @tanmedia It was not the property market. That came later. I think the nikkei went first but I was 5 back then. Firstly they went over the demographic dividend. Then local demand started evaporating followed by the nikkei but there have been tonnes of papers and books on this. Have a read. Def not the property though.

      • flyingfoxMEMBER

        @Leviathan To illustrate that it was not only a property bust. an entire economic one. I like elephants so please go ahead. The nikkei still is not anywhere near it’s top.

      • @Flyingfox –

        What are you even talking about ?

        We are talking about in infastructure spend, a stimulus, in Japan post collapse in order to stimulate the economy – whether that crash was caused by housing, Nikkei, or demographics is irrelevant.

        The only issue is that China will not repeat that BECAUSE this is what China has just done post GFC.

        Secondly –

        The Japanese old age demographic issue is only impacting now and past decade – most definitely NOT in 95. Further what then caused the Nikkei collapse ?

        The exact same thing which snow balled through out all of Asia and is now known as the Asian Financial crisis of 1997 which was initiated in Japan.

        The root causes of this are well known. The paradigm shift of re-investing savings back into state corporations and infrastructure. Vulture capitalists transitioned these economies from one of fiscally conservative savers and opened them up like a can of worms. It is well documented and well understood history.

        Finally the transition from poor post war emerging nation into economic power house – the transition from cheap manufacturer of clothes, cheap electronics, toys etc to world leading tech and car manufacturing centre – sound FAMILIAR CHINA ?

        In other words – transition from exporting, saving to consumer society.

        Further you cite the

    • IIRC the Japs didn’t swap their manufacturing industry for Made In China plastic trinkets in the lead up to their calamity. It helps to have a Plan B that isn’t just Plan A with a different shade of lipstick.

  9. I’m usually a lurker on here and appreciate the majority of comments and discussion. However, damn it Migtronix, give it a rest!

    You constantly comment on everything, all day everyday. This thread, of the 78 comments, you have made 13/78 – that is almost 17% of all the comments.

    This is consistent with other threads. Too much buddy…calm down perhaps?

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Tell that to Bluebird, you do realise you just prompted me to comment don’t you?

      • How is it my fault?

        At least Mig has the guts to be himself. A lot of the commentors are pretentious and guarded arrogant bores.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @bluebird it’s not your fault I’d just be staggered if your comment count on this thread was lower.

        Perhaps our comment count overlords can tell us what the variance is between the my comment count and the next highest on any given thread? Apparently they don’t realise it’s impolite to butt in on others conversations.
        . At any rate I never tell anyone to STFU and it’s never worked on me…

      • On this thread mine are about half as much as yours. Also a lot of mine are just defending myself against little bitchy snipes from the sanctimonious PC leftist nutjobs like “dr” smithy. So they don’t really count.

      • I don’t know. Who cares. Don’t people have scroll thingies on their mice? It’s very easy to skip posts from people you don’t want to hear from.

    • To be honest I’m a little surprised that HnH hasn’t clamped down on Mig, makes me wonder what the Hits, Uniques and View numbers are doing.

      Trouble with focusing too much on Hits is that you can easily miss the fact that Uniques are falling, from a web-site valuation perspective it’s especially important to understand the demographic of the Uniques and map what content they return for AND what content causes them to never return.

      Maybe its time for a little data mining at your local Google-Analytics store.

      • Well you have to admire his enthusiasm at least. He is a weapon of mass debate (don’t say that quickly)

        Actually I enjoy his comments.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        #div auth-migtronix{display: none;}
        (or scan the html yourselves)
        Glad I could help you geniuses out

      • migtronixMEMBER

        BTW I use tor with rapid switching protocols so good luck with that! I thought you were across this? Maybe Japanese schoolgirls are distracting…

      • migtronixMEMBER

        So you blather all this Web analytics nonsense (like people who run Web sites don’t know they your inexpert opinion) and don’t realise that a logged in user can’t possibly be a unique page request? Wow.

      • @Mig not sure why you’re SO defensive, you’re right I’m definitely not an expert in web analytics, just saying that maybe the MB guys need to understand this topic and shape content and responses . Too much of any one opinion / topic is a turn-off for most people doesn’t matter if the comment is right or wrong witty or boring its human nature we’re talking about.

        So dude take a chill pill!

  10. It would be nice to live in Bluebird’s black and white wold. Good/evil, left/right, right/wrong. Unfortunately life is full of complexity and contradictions.

    “If you’re going to BE left, Be left”

    That’s just silly. Who would restrict themselves like that?

  11. The conversation today has been a bit lightweight. I want to know who Tony is winking at .

    • Me too. It’s a sure sign of Australia turning into wife beaters who chain their women to the kitchen.

      • BubbleyMEMBER

        Oh Lordy… will you both please be quiet!

        I can only hope that HnH give you both a MB time out for a week until you both learn to stay on topic.

        And the topic is a crash in China, one which could seriously harm Australia. Its a lot more serious than you idiots babbling ideology.