There’s a bunch of material about Ukraine in today’s press that should never have seen the light of day. Hugh White at the AFR is not one of them;
US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel boasted last week that despite the latest savage budget cuts, America’s armed forces would be “remaining prepared to win decisively against any adversary should deterrence fail”. This week Russian President Vladimir Putin is putting those brave words to the test, and already Hagel’s boast looks very hollow.
That has consequences far beyond Ukraine itself. Beijing and Tokyo will be watching the US’s reactions there closely, and they will be drawing conclusions that could fundamentally affect their relationship with each other, and hence the whole future of Asia.
The struggle over Ukraine’s political future and diplomatic orientation takes on these wider implications because it has become a test of the US’s role as the guardian and guarantor of the post-Cold War order, both in Europe and beyond.
The US has no formal security commitments to Ukraine, but ever since it split from the disintegrating Soviet Union in 1991 everyone – European and American alike – has assumed that the US would have the political, economic and, if necessary, military muscle to dissuade Russia’s leaders from ever trying to bring it back under their sway.
Putin’s bold and provocative moves over the past week show that this is no longer true. No one knows how far he will go in Ukraine, but it is already clear that the threat of direct Russian military intervention has become the key factor shaping political developments there. A Western-oriented, united and sovereign Ukraine no longer seems possible. A Ukraine entirely subjugated to Moscow’s interests seems quite probable.
My White goes on to describe how this building tension is likely to embolden China’s push into the Pacific, as well as fire up Japan in its quest to restore its own military because:
If a clash occurs, the US faces an appalling choice.
Either it supports Japan in a war with China that it cannot win and will not be able to control; the economic costs alone would be devastating for the US, and the strategic risk are incalculable.
Alternately it steps back from the fight with China, reneging on solemn alliance obligations, destroying the US-Japan alliance and fatally weakening US leadership in the whole Asian region.
The US’s statements so far have raised real doubts about which way it would jump, and Obama himself has made no promises to support Japan. It is becoming increasingly clear that Beijing and Tokyo are starting to believe the US would stand back.
So what do we do? Summon the Russian Ambassador:
Foreign minister Julie Bishop will officially summon the Russian ambassador, Vladimir Morozov, in Canberra on Monday morning for an explanation of his country’s actions in the Ukraine.
Ms Bishop will meet the ambassador with the secretary for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Peter Varghese.
International military intervention into the dispute should be the last resort, Ms Bishop said, and Australia would keep pushing for the situation to be resolved through mediation.
It’s probably fair enough. Little powers all over should be seeking to enmesh the big boys in as much red tape as possible, but the practical implications will be another little strengthening of the international perception that the looser the US commitment becomes to our region the tighter we seek seek to bind it.
