Ukraine is lost

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From the FT:

The west’s diplomatic efforts to counter Russia’s takeover of Crimea faced setbacks on multiple fronts on Wednesday as the Kremlin refused to engage with the new Ukrainian government and allies themselves were at loggerheads over how tough a line to take with Moscow.

The refusal of Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, to meet his Ukrainian counterpart cast a shadow over talks in Paris, the US and Russia’s first top-level meeting since the crisis intensified last week.

…Meanwhile, a US-led push for allied agreement to impose sanctions on Russia also faltered with the strong resistance of Germany, which was prepared only to cut off visa liberalisation and trade agreement talks with Russia.

Alex Stubb, Finland’s Europe minister, warned that the EU ultimately had very little power to respond to Russia.

“There isn’t that much that we could do at the end of the day. And I think the Russians know that.”

Whether Berlin can be won over by harder line European capitals, particularly from former Soviet-bloc EU members, will be at the top of the agenda of an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday.

“They’re afraid if we do something the Russians will hit back,” said a senior EU official involved in summit planning.

…Reuters reported that Robert Serry, a UN envoy, was forced to abandon a mission to Crimea after being stopped by unidentified armed men, taking shelter in a cafe from a crowd shouting “Russia!” before being escorted to the airport.

Only the Ukrainians themselves can turn this around by fighting. And even then they’ll likely do so alone.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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