Oh dear. The February Nab Survey is out and the recovery is sputtering swiflty:
Recent recovery short lived? Business conditions back-pedalled sharply in February reversing around half post election gains. Confidence softened but still remains marginally above trend. Sales and employment fell markedly during the month, with the latter pointing to very weak labour market conditions (nearly all post election gains reversed) – and a jobless recovery. Manufacturing conditions deteriorated sharply, as did “bellwether” wholesaling conditions. Near-term outlook weaker with forward indicators softening. Inflation pressures well contained due to limited upstream pressures. Economic growth forecasts unchanged. Final RBA cut to occur in late 2014, with unemployment still expected to rise to 6½% by late 2014 and stay “higher for longer”.
Confidence OK but falls across the board and check out employment:
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Capex is rolling over as well:
This recovery is pushing up a very steep hill. Full report.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
