Daily iron ore price update (crunch)

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Yes, the falling anvil has returned! The table for January 20, 2014:

ergfe

With ten days still to go before China’s new year break, I see no reason why spot could not threaten $110 downside support on this move:

iron ore price

The key downside support for the 12 month is $107. If that goes, look out for a deeper move.

The Dalian May contract is still falling:

Dalian

But the real culprit is rebar:

rebar

Steel mills are not making any money and so they don’t want any more iron ore.

The early year steel restock should still go ahead but the following chart from Credit Suisse yesterday shows that steel inventories are unseasonably very high at steel mills:

steel

 

That leaves traders to restock and how aggressive are they going to be in this environment?

As I said yesterday, abundant inventories, abundant supply, faltering demand, technicals failing, you do the math.

David Llewellyn-Smith

Comments

  1. migtronixMEMBER

    I didn’t think rebar was coming back, should have gone short on shanghai hot rolled back in November. Bugger.

  2. “The key downside support for the 12 month is $107. If that goes, look out for a deeper move”

    You will get a deeper move. That is a chart pattern I call “Dog Returning to its Vomit”. Rarely fails, though takes a bit of patience the second time around.

    http://twitter.com/BlandDexter