BREE raises commodity revenue forecasts

The Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (BREE) has released its December quarter commodity price forecasts and the news is good if you believe it with exports up 17% this year financial year to $205 billion (that’s up a billion and change from September’s forecast):

bree

The growth is driven largely by a $6 billion upgrade in the value of iron ore exports on the back of an extraordinary 23.3% volume increase:

bree 2
DEC

I’ve previously criticised BREE for extreme optimism around bulk commodities but I’ll have to eat some humble pie today. The miracle commodity has delivered so far.

BREE sees iron ore settling at $120 for next year, still higher than me, especially on that huge volume growth (and same for met coal):

breee

So I may yet get my revenge.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. That’s thoroughly amazing..

    Given the size of mining capex in the decade to 2013-14 (it has got to be in the order of $500billion odd), you’d want some pretty substansive returns on your investment.

    The investment phase has changed the face of Australia, imagine what the export phase will look like if they manage to pull it off….