Preliminary estimates for October indicate that the index fell by 1 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 1.3 per cent in September (revised). The largest contributors to the fall in October were the declines in the prices of iron ore, gold and crude oil, while the base metals and the rural subindices increased in the month. In Australian dollar terms, the index fell by 2.4 per cent in October.
Over the past year, the index has fallen by 1 per cent in SDR terms. The prices of gold, coking coal and thermal coal have fallen over this period, while the price of iron ore has risen. The index has increased by 7 per cent in Australian dollar terms over the past year.
As indicated in previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal export prices are being used for recent months, based on market information. Using spot prices for these commodities, the index declined by 1.4 per cent in October in SDR terms, to be 0.3 per cent lower over the past year.
As well as falling prices, the rising Australian dollar has had an impact and here is the chart in local currency terms:
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
