Credit Suisse has an update on Chinese steel production today that underlines just what a banner year this has been for Chinese steel:
…the NBS total of 65 Mt for October crude steel production confirmed CISA’s earlier estimate. Though falling back marginally from September’s total, after seasonal adjustment this equated to 67.6 Mt, up 0.4% mom sa, on account of October’s softer seasonality – the national day holiday generally disrupts output. On an annualized basis this still equates to production of 811 Mt/y (Exhibit 31).
If production can stay above 800 million tonnes, the year on year growth will be 14%. That is so far ahead of the most bullish forecasts in the market, which were around 740-750mt earlier this year, that it is just not funny!
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
