The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released revised population projections, which projects Australia’s population out to 2101 under various growth assumptions:
According to the ABS, Australia’s population is projected to double to 46 million by 2075 based on its “medium growth” assumptions, although it could double by as early as 2058:
Australia’s estimated resident population (ERP) at 30 June 2012 of 22.7 million people is projected to increase to between 36.8 and 48.3 million people by 2061, and to between 42.4 and 70.1 million people by 2101. Series A projects the highest growth, while Series C projects the lowest growth.
In the 20 years to 30 June 2012, Australia’s population increased by 1.3% per year on average, with just over half of this growth resulting from NOM and just under half from natural increase (the excess of births over deaths). In the last 2 years, Australia’s population has increased by 1.6% per year on average, with the contribution of NOM growing to 56%, and natural increase decreasing to 44%. In the financial year 2011-12, there were 306,000 births and 147,200 deaths in Australia, resulting in natural increase of 158,800 people. During this same period, the contribution of NOM to population growth again increased to 58%, with natural increase decreasing to 42%.
In Series C, a state of natural decrease (deaths outnumbering births) will be reached in 2063. Despite this, Australia’s population continues to increase slowly throughout the projection period, due to the contribution of NOM.
In contrast to the 2004-based set of ABS population projections released in November 2005, no series shows population decline for Australia before the end of the century.
The proportion of people aged over 65 is projected to more than double over the forecast period under the medium growth scenario, from 14% of Australia’s population currently to 22% by 2061 and to 25% by 2101.
There were also 420,300 people aged 85 years and over in Australia in 2012, making up 2% of the population, with this group projected to grow rapidly throughout the projection period to 5% by 2061 and to 6% by 2101.
Perth’s population is expected to overtake Brisbane’s by 2028, at three million people, whereas the Australian Capital Territory population will overtake Tasmania’s ten years later.
Melbourne and Sydney are expected to be neck and neck by 2053, with 7.9 million people each. However, under the higher growth scenario Melbourne would become the most populous city by 2030.
