Earlier this year, the United Nations (UN) released a report projecting that the world’s population – currently around 7.2 billion – would increase by 1 billion over the next 12 years, would reach 9.6 billion by 2050, and could reach nearly 11 billion by 2100. The new projection was around 800 million (8%) larger than the previous projection of 10.1 billion by 2100, issued by the UN in 2011.
The projected rise is due mostly to fertility in Africa, where the UN had expected birth rates to decline more quickly than they have. The population there is now expected to hit 4.2 billion by 2100, from around 1.1 billion currently. Populations in India and the US are also expected to rise significantly, whereas Europe’s and China’s are projected to fall.
Now, Deutsche Bank is challenging the UN’s population projections, instead claiming that the world’s fertility rate will fall to replacement levels in about 10 years and decrease from there, causing the world’s population to peak at only 8.7 billion in 2055 before declining to 8 billion by 2100. Via Interest.co.nz:
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In our view, global fertility will fall to the replacement rate in less than fifteen years. Population may keep growing for a few more decades from rising longevity but, reproductively speaking, our species will no longer be expanding. We forecast that world population will peak at around 8.7 bln in 2055 and will then decline to 8bn by 2100. Thus, world population could peak half a century sooner and, by 2100, stand 2.8bn below what the UN currently predicts.
Developed countries have long had low birth rates but the largest declines in fertility are in developing countries with the Chinese, Russians, Koreans and Brazilians no longer replacing themselves. A large decline in the Chinese workforce is now unavoidable irrespective of the removal of the one-child policy. Due to a skewed gender ratio, we found that China no longer has enough child-bearing age women to stabilize its population.
I for one hope that Deutsche Bank’s forecasts prove correct. A global population of 11 billion people is a scary proposition in a world of finite resources and declining oil production.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
