We also received the August quarterly underemployment result, which was up 0.4% points to 7.8%, much higher than even during the 1990’s recession. While we take the figures with a grain of salt, it does argue for the improved flexibility and increased casualisation of the Australian labour market, in that more find themselves still in a job, albeit wishing they had more work.
…Looking ahead, while not all forward indicators of employment are as weak, we do note the heightened job uncertainty at present is consistent with further weak outcomes and a rising unemployment rate. We maintain our view that the unemployment rate heads up to 6.5% by 2H14.
The 7.8% rate is 0.1 below the GFC peak. It’s going to get knocked off.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
