The AFR this morning reports that:
The latest findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the science of climate change, on whichThe Australian Financial Review has been briefed, are expected to upgrade the likelihood that man-made activity is causing global warming to 95 per cent.
It is now “unequivocal” Earth has warmed since the start of the 20th century by 0.89 degrees. In contrast, in 2001 the probability of this being the case was only 66 per cent.
…To keep temperature increases below 2 degrees, the report finds global greenhouse gas emissions will need to be cut by 10 per cent a year.
But there is less confidence than the last report in 2007 that global drought or hurricane activity has increased. The new report also reduces the minimum possible temperature increase from 2 degrees to 1.5 degrees if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations double.
Importantly, the report responds to the slowing of temperature increases over the past decade. The slowing has been seized upon by critics of the IPCC as evidence man-made climate change is not occurring.
The explanation offered by the report for the recent slowing which, I might add, is not yet statistically significant with regard to the warming trend, is explained in part the rise aerosol pollutants and the absorption of heat by the ocean.
For Australia, the report says temperatures have risen by between 0.4 degrees and 1.25 degrees in Australia.To 2065 warming is projected to jump by 2 degrees and by 2100 between 3 degrees and 4 degrees.
