Daily iron ore update (India a Goa)

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Find below the iron ore price table for September 25, 2013:

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And the charts:

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There are two head shoulders patterns forming. One is shorter term and bearish. The other is longer term and bullish. I still think the bearish one will prevail but the price keeps holding up despite ongoing declines in rebar:

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rebar average

News today should send a little shiver down the spine of iron ore bulls. From Iron Ore Team:

China imported 755,939 mt of iron ore from India in August, up 49% from 506,322 mt in July, according to data released Monday by the General Administration of Customs.

The increase comes on the back of Indian government talks of a possible reduction in iron ore export tariffs — to about 20% from 30% currently — with the aim of reviving ore export volumes and boosting dollar inflows into India, in the face of increasingly serious current account deficit problems.

Several market participants also said they expected mining restrictions in the major ore-producing western Indian state of Goa to be lifted as soon as October, a marked change from earlier estimates that it would take at least three years for mining activity to resume there.

Year on year however, Indian ore imports to China in August slumped 53%, highlighting the steady decline of a once-major supplier of the steel making raw material.

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India will have no trouble re-establishing clients. The diversification impulse will be enough by itself. If Goa does return strongly, it will be worth $20 to the spot price.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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